Well, I did write in my last post that someone needed to take my shovel off me, and unfortunately no one did.
The worst thing about it all, is I knew what would happen – as I alluded too in my previous post- and I still let it happen. If I’m going to bet like that, then what’s the point? I may as well pack up now.
To sum up briefly, I won (approximately) 10% of my betting bank on the Test match between West Indies and New Zealand , and lost about 20% of my betting bank on the England V South Africa test match.
I’ll start with West Indies ’ match. West Indies were 1.38 to lay towards the end of Day 1, after New Zealand had collapsed to 260 all out. With a price this short, I placed this lay with a view to backing them later in the match for an all round profit when their price drifted out again, which it did.
When West Indies came out to bat, I was of the opinion that one of three things could happen. 1) The WIndies would also collapse for a similar or lower score, ensuring a drift in their price. 2) It might rain (there was a tropical storm in the area), ensuring a drift in their price. 3) They bat way past New Zealand ’s score, taking time out of the game, maybe their price would shorten, but I believed that if it did, it wouldn’t shorten by much – maybe to around the 1.25-1.3 mark. Or it may even have drifted, depending on time left in match and weather forecast.
The point is that it was a low risk trade. The worst thing that might have happened was option 3.
Onto England V South Africa . I clearly took a punt on the pitch being a green top, and I clearly got that wrong (as did the England hierarchy). I previously stated that I felt if over 350 Overs were bowled, there would be a result. I also got that wrong.
Analysing these two bets and it is clear that I took a wildish punt on the pitch and conditions (with plenty of dodgy weather on the horizon) in the England game, with no factual knowledge of how the pitch might play as a ball had not been bowled before I placed my lay of the draw.
While in the West Indies match, I looked at the match situation and felt that a lay of West Indies (with a view to trading later in the match) looked a value lay of small risk. This was based more on factual evidence of how batting conditions hadn’t looked great on Day 1, West Indies potential to capitulate, and I also had a fairly clear vision in my mind of what way the markets could go.
In hindsight, yes that beautiful thing, I was way too hasty with my lay in the England Test match. And worse still, there were great trading opportunities on Day 5, if I had waited.
In future I think I’m going to have to adopt an approach to staying patient, and if I miss the boat from time to time, then so be it.
More thought clearly needs to go into my trades/bets. I can’t just pile in before a ball has been bowled in hope rather than expectation. I need to sit tight and wait for an opportunity to arise, as it did in West Indies ’ match. This is the way I need to go moving forward.
