Going into the 4th Test my confidence was a bit shot. I had made a mess of the 3rd Test by throwing away a winning position on the evening of the 3rd day, by staying in my trade and hoping for a bigger win. As has happened in the past, this can influence decisions when I next have a bet.
To start with, I do believe my performance in the 3rd Test did initially influence my decisions in the 4th Test. In the end though, I managed to put it all out of my head. I actually think I eventually did a good job of isolating my cricket trading down to just this (4th) Test match.
On Monday morning, I was happy to sit on my 5% green. That was until seeing Australia trading down at sub 1.25 in their run chase.
In isolation I thought that was worth a lay. I wasn’t convinced the lay bet would come off, but I was happy that it was a value lay. This is where I managed to put what happened in the 3rd Test out of my head and place my lay, accepting it could lose, but understanding that it represented good value. And if it did lose, I shouldn’t be too hard on myself.
If the truth be told, I didn’t expect Australia to lose the match in a session, and I had traded out long before their batting collapse. I suspected England might win, but it was never my intention to let my lay bet run, just in case they didn’t.
I placed it with a view to Australia losing two to three quick wickets and being at around 200/4 or 5, I then thought I could either trade out for at worst scratch, or a nice win. As it turned out, I got out for a nice win on the loss of Michael Clarke’s wicket.
I then left about 5% (of my betting bank) green on Australia, 30% on England, and I had a very large percentage green on the draw (which wasn’t worth laying at the high odds).
Despite the win, I still have a bit of a long term doubt in my mind though. Was my lay of Australia too risky? I know the result suggests not, but for a period of time after lunch it actually looked like my faith in England was misplaced. And realistically, the bet should have lost.
Was it a trade I placed, or was it a bet? And if it was a bet, was it a value one?
Should I have just sat on the 5% profit I had made trading the previous night?
These are decisions I need to make. Do I look for riskier big wins, or do I play safe and look to take around 5% a Test match, with minimum risk to my betting bank?
I don’t think I can continue to do a mixture of the two, I believe I need to decide one way or the other. I need to formulate a betting/trading process in my mind, and work on it until I am happy it is as good as I can get it (or maybe even perfect it).
I can’t continue losing big like I did on the 3rd Test, and wiping out 2 to 3 Test matches worth of winnings.