Not quite a straight knock out, as New Zealand would still have a chance to qualify if they lose today (they would need Australia to beat Sr Lanka, but not by enough to make their net run rate better than New Zealand’s) . England on the other hand, are out if they lose.
Rain is also likely to play apart in the outcome. In which case a wash out would see the Kiwi’s go through, and England relying on other results (again, an Aussie win against Sri Lanka, but this time not by enough to put them above England on net run rate).
The hosts start as favourites, England are 4/6, and New Zealand are 6/5.
For England Graeme Swann is injured, but Jonathan Trott is passed fit to play. The absence of Swann is not the disaster for England it would have been 18 months or so back, as James Tredwell has proved himself to be a more than adequate replacement.
Trott’s inclusion will no doubt upset his ODI knockers, but he is a major part of the English blueprint for playing at home (at the very least).
The Kiwi’s are without Tim Southee, which is a big blow for them, although he is yet to take a wicket for them in this tournament.
Previous results on this ground in the Champions Trophy don’t give any clues as to what sort of wicket it is, as they have seen high and low scoring matches. Along with the weather, expect another toss of the coin outcome.
In the outright Champions Trophy betting, Sri Lanka have been cut from 10/1 to 7/1 overnight without bowling a ball (or a match being played in their group). It appears cricket bettors have finally woken up and realised they have world class players, who can play in these (English) conditions.
Apart from that there is no real overall change in the outright winner betting. India are still favourites, they have been slightly cut from 7/4 to 13/8. While South Africa have been gently eased from 9/4 to 5/2.
Champions Trophy Betting
South Africa 5/2
New Zealand 6/1
Sri Lanka 7/1