I did a bit of cricket betting this week on the Zimbabwe V Bangladesh test match, currently taking place in the shadow of the IPL. Above is the screenshot I took after Day 2’s play had finished, it shows the cricket bets that I placed overnight after Day 1’s play had finished (before the start of Day 2’s play).
Sometimes when a test match – or any cricket match, for that matter – isn’t regarded as a big game (in the world of cricket betting), trading can be a bit slow. This is no bad thing though, as it opens up some nice big gaps in the market that can be exploited with a bit of patience and discipline.
In total, I did two cricket bets at the end of Day 1’s play. At the time I placed my first bets the draw was trading at 2.34 to back and 2.36 to lay. I placed my back bet of the draw at 2.36 for £125.00, and then placed my lay at 2.28 (for £125.00). I then left my computer, and when I checked back about an hour later they had both been matched.
At this stage the draw had come in to about 2.30, but I noticed that there was a massive gap in the market below 2.30. So I put a lay bet up at 2.22, and a back bet at 2.34 – again for £125.00, and I then went to bed.
I got up in the morning expecting/hoping the back bet to be matched, but not really the lay bet, I was amazed to find both had been matched.
It was my intention to have my back bet matched (at 2.34), and hopefully find in the morning that I could lay at 2.30 to 2.32. The worst case scenario I thought I might find was the price had drifted out to about 2.36, meaning a slight loss on that trade (but I would still have been in overall profit from the first trade).
Anyway, when I did check my bets to find they had been matched, the draw was available to lay at 2.38 (a bit worse than my overnight worst case scenario , which I then did for £10.50, to level out my profit across all three outcomes.
This all means that overnight the draw traded at 2.22 when the market was quiet. It must have been a falsely low price, as it was trading at 2.36 (to back), and 2.38 (to lay), about an hour before the second day’s play got under way.
This just goes to show how a market can fluctuate greatly – and how money can still be made – when there isn’t much money in it.
