New Zealand V England – 2nd Test Betting

With just Day 5 and plenty of potential rain left to come, it would be somewhat of an understatement to say this has been an up and down, topsy turvy, weather influenced event, from a cricket betting perspective.

Even now with less than an hour to go until Day 5 gets under way the betting exchange market is going crazy. In the last couple of hours alone I’ve seen England trading at 1.92-1.95, and 10 minutes later the draw is trading at 1.88-1.90, while the mainstream PayPal bookmakers have England at 8/11 and the draw at 11/10 (name your price on New Zealand).

For anyone reading this thinking why don’t you trade it then? The answer is I have done a couple of times, but that’s it for the time being, unless I see something I think to be way out of kilter. It’s just madness, as the market is all over the place. Trading a market like this at the moment, is more akin to playing Roulette.

The way I traded it this morning was to lay the draw at just under odds on first, and then lay England after, for a couple of ticks profit.

The reason I did it this way is because the market fundamentally sees an England win, and is just waiting for some good news on the weather front. Therefore the only price crash I could see coming was England getting backed in, if the weather forecast looked improved. And as I placed my draw lay first, that wouldn’t have bothered me.

Bear in mind this was two to three hours before the scheduled start of play, so there was never any real possibility of the draw price crashing. And I was always aware that the weather forecast for later in the day looks a lot better than it did this time yesterday.

This would have enabled me too sit on my draw lay (if the price had crashed), and hope/expect it to drift again as the weather cleared up later in the day (as it is expected to do so). That would be a risk, but it would have been a calculated risk.

Basically, I get the impression that the market this morning was fluctuating between two schools of thought/punters. Those betting on the current weather, and those betting on what they believe the weather will do later in the day.

Anyway, it’s just too unpredictable at the moment, we’re basically betting on the English weather, so I think I’m going to leave it alone now.

Cricket Betting Results

The first Test match of the English summer seen a nice profit landed as England beat New Zealand inside 4 days at Lord’s. The quick turn around in the direction of the match on the Saturday morning allowed me to turn a potentially losing position, into a £30.01 win.

I started off trading the Test match on Betfair before a ball had been bowled. I thought the draw looked too short around 48-36 hours before the scheduled start of play, so I started off by laying it (it was 2.44 when I placed my lay bet). This short price was obviously down to the bit of indifferent weather that was lingering over London and most of the UK in the build up to the Test match.

It’s amazing, the effect the weather can have on cricket betting in England!

Sure enough by the morning of the Test match, I was in a position to trade out for a couple of quid profit on all outcomes. Unfortunately, this is where things started to initially go wrong though.

I didn’t trade out. I thought that in the hour or so prior to the start of play, the draw would drift further out to around the 2.9 to 3.0 mark  (I believe it would have been around 3.4- 3.5 without a weather risk). It didn’t drift though, it stayed at around 2.62-2.68.

This price still offered me a profit, but I didn’t take it and I then compounded things as I then took my eye of the ball and missed the toss. This gave me a massive problem as England won it and decided to bat. This meant that the draw immediately got backed in, as the Betfair cricket betting market felt that England would probably bat for 4 or 5 sessions and take time out of the game, and with the dodgy weather in the air, increase the likelihood of a drawn match.

Had England bowled first, I believe the draw would have drifted, as the market would have expected England to bowl New Zealand out cheaply given the overhead conditions, and move the match on at a pace.

Anyway, I know found myself in the position of either having to take a hit, or sit tight and hope/expect that the match would turn. It clearly didn’t on Day 1 as play was cut short by rain, and England had batted very cautiously and slowly prior to that.

Day 2 seen an improvement as wickets started to tumble. After the two Kiwi wickets fell early in their innings, I managed to trade out for scratch and thought I had got away with things.

On Friday night I then decided to trade the draw on Betfair. I put my lay bet up, it got matched, so and I put my back bet up, and that got matched, giving me a couple of quid profit.

I did it again, only this time I placed both my back and lay bet at the same time. This was a bit lazy of me, I didn’t expect the draw to shorten, so I should have got my lay bet matched first (as I could only see the draw drifting), and only then should I have placed my back bet.

Anyway, only my back bet got matched as the draw drifted. I went to bed assuming it would come back in, and that I would get up in the morning to see a small profit on all three outcomes, but I didn’t. When I got up in the morning, the draw had drifted even further. This left me with a nice profit on the draw, but large losses on an England or New Zealand win. And I didn’t think the game would end in a draw!!

So I then decided to place a large lay of New Zealand at 3.75. I did this in the belief that that they would either lose wickets, meaning they would drift. Or they would also grind out a score over a long period of time, taking time out of the match like England did, and their price would also drift (but not as much).

My preference was a clatter of wickets, and luckily that’s what happened. I then found myself in a position to trade out for a nice all round profit. My green on England was around £46.00, so I waited until it was time for England to bat again, and then stated to reduce some of my New Zealand red (by backing them at longer odds).

I gradually reduced my potential New Zealand loss over the Saturday afternoon, and I was pleased I did after England collapsed late on in the day.

This then left me in a position to back the draw for pennies, which I did. In the end I just decided to square the bet off so I was guaranteed around £30.00 no matter what happened.

The irony of the bet was that if I hadn’t managed to get myself into such a mess trying to trade the draw, I probably wouldn’t have been so bullish with my New Zealand lay. I probably would have played it safe, and tried to just win a couple of quid to top up my cricket betting bank.

Anyway, it ended up a good start to the English Test summer. Lets hope it is the first of plenty of cricket betting wins this season.
 

England V New Zealand – Test Series Betting Preview

Although you could be forgiven for not noticing, the 1st Test match of the (so-called) English summer is almost upon us. Starting this Thursday, England resume battle with New Zealand, and the hosts will be looking for a somewhat better outcome than the one they got in the recent drawn Test series down in the Southern hemisphere.

In truth, England were lucky to escape with a draw in New Zealand, but on home soil it is widely expected to be a different outcome.

It is only a two Test series this time with the 1st Test played at Lord’s from 16th – 20th May, and the 2nd Test at Headingley from 24th – 28th May. These will be immediately followed by three ODI’s, and if New Zealand still have the will left to play any cricket, two T20’s at the end on June.

In the betting, the online bookmakers certainly all expect a comfortable England victory as they make the home side heavy odds on favourite for a series win, England are generally available at 1/3 to 2/5 to achieve this.

New Zealand on the other hand are far less fancied in the betting, for a series win they are available at between 9/1 and 12/1. While a drawn series is widely available at between 10/3 to 7/2.

On the playing side of things, England have to cope without the injured knee brace wearing Kevin Pietersen for the whole of the series. Pietersen is recovering from the knee injury he sustained in New Zealand, and is now also out of the Champions Trophy as well.

On the whole England should be able to get by without Pietersen, in his absence Alastair Cook is the 5/2 favourite to be the top English batsmen.

Apart from Pietersen, England are at full strength. Even Stuart Broad is claiming to finally be fully fit, lets wait and see there.

England’s batting looks a touch inexperienced without Pietersen, with Jonny Bairstow set to deputise. The batting line up now has Nick Compton, Jonny Bairstow and Joe Root in it, all players with limited Test match experience. Although Matt Prior coming in at 7, does counteract that.

New Zealand are starting to look more of a settled side (usually a good sign) these days. They are sticking with the bulk of the players that pushed England all the way in the last series earlier this year, and with Martin Guptill and Doug Bracewell pushing for recalls, competition for places seems really good in the Kiwi camp.

Guptill and Bracewell missed the England series due to injury (and not being able to force his way back in, in the case of Bracewell). All in all though, this is a good position for captain Brendon McCullum to find himself in.

As I already stated, the 1st Test starts on Thursday, and in the betting there has already been a big move on the draw – thanks to the great British weather. The draw on Betfair is currently trading at 2.56-2.58, having started out at around 3.5, and getting backed in to 2.26 earlier this week.

As is always the case when betting on cricket, always keep a close eye on the weather forecast for the dreaded rain. Rain generally plays a big part when betting on Test cricket in England, as there is quite often time taken out of a match due to it. It therefore effects the odds on the draw.

Although to counteract that, dark clouds and/or overcast conditions in England can lead to a large clattering of wickets, so beware backing the draw just on the basis of a weather forecast predicting rain!

Betting in the 1st Test again sees England as favourites, they are now at 1.86 on Betfair, and are around 8/11, 4/5 with the bookies. New Zealand are 8/1 and better with the bookies, and 13/1 on Betfair.

The draw is between 13/10 and 6/4 with the online bookmakers, while it is 2.56 on Betfair.

How To Make Money From Cricket Betting

You don’t always have to be able to predict who is going to win a Test match to win money from betting on cricket.

Betting on – or trading – Test cricket can be very profitable just from being able to predict what isn’t going to happen, as opposed to knowing what is going to happen, or who is going to win.

Sometimes it is obvious that a team isn’t going to be in a position to win a Test match, so in this instance (depending on the odds) I would/could place a lay bet against that team (I generally use this method when I’m trading cricket on Betfair).

Depending on the odds involved, I might be looking to place my lay bet and just leave it to run until the Test match concludes, or the other option is to place my lay bet with a view to trading it during the Test match.

For example, if team A is 2/1 to lay and I can only see that teams odds drifting, I would lay them. If their odds drifted, I could then back them at 3/1 or 4/1 to cover my potential loss on team A (in case they turned the Test match around and produced a comeback).

That way if team A does come back and win the Test match, I won’t lose. If team A don’t win as I expect, I pick up my winnings.

Another way of making money from Test match betting is to trade small price movements. For example, in the recent 2nd Test between South Africa and Pakistan, the South Africa price was hovering around the 1.33 to 1.38 mark for a spell of time.

Pakistan were batting and the market was looking to push out the South Africa price, but every time the South African price slightly drifted, an unplayable delivery flashed past a Pakistani edge, and the South African price came in again as the market expected a wicket to fall.

As a result of this, I just kept backing and laying. All I did was to keep backing South Africa at 1.38 for £125.00, then once my bet got matched I would place a lay bet of SA up at 1.35 for the same amount (£125.00), and after a couple of balls it would get matched. After a few trades I was about £15.00 green on South Africa (the Betfair term for winning money).

I then put some of that money on Pakistan and the Draw – just to be ultra safe – and ended up with a guaranteed win of over £12.00 on every outcome. An easy trade all done in about 15 minutes.

These are just a couple of examples of how money can be made from Test match betting. Like with all betting in general, if you are looking to try your hand at it, start off with £5.00 or £10.00 and just play around with it to try and get a feel for things first.

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Latest Ashes Betting

The news that Kevin Pietersen is now out of the series against New Zealand starting in May hasn’t really had any impact with the online bookmakers‘ odds with regard to cricket betting for the Ashes series.

In reality, it shouldn’t impact Ashes betting, as what has the New Zealand series got to do with the Ashes? In short, the answer is nothing, but we have been here before with ECB injury updates.

When news of Pietersen’s knee injury first emerged, he was only supposed to be out of the IPL. Now he is out of the New Zealand series as well.

So what next? The Ashes as well!!

Obviously the injury is worse than first thought. Are the ECB not telling us the full story? Are the medical staff getting their diagnosis wrong? Is he really a doubt for the Ashes? Because if he is, the odds will certainly change.

The problem I see here is that we have been here before. We had similar problems a few years back with Michael Vaughan, Simon Jones, Andrew Flintoff and Chris Tremlett.

More recently we have had the issues with Tim Bresnan, Graeme Swann, and I’m convinced Stuart Broad isn’t right.

ECB injury updates remind me of a train delay when you are standing on a platform needing to get somewhere. It starts off as 5 minute delay, then a 10 minute delay, and so on…. I’m sure you get the picture.

Is this a deliberate drip feed of information, designed not to give the Aussies the complete picture of the England players health? Or is this (allegedly) misdiagnosis again?

I fully understand the ECB not wanting to give the Aussies a heads up about the medical conditions of some of our better players. My fear is that I’m not convinced this is what the ECB are actually doing.

Anyway, onto the cricket betting and with regard to the odds on the Ashes, they haven’t really changed. England are still around the 2/5 to 4/9 mark for a series victory. A drawn series is still around 5/1 to 11/2. The Aussies have slightly shortened, a few weeks back they were generally 7/2 to 4/1, with a couple of bookies going 3/1. They are still in that price range, but I’ve noticed quite a few bookmakers are now offering 10/3 – as well as 3/1, 7/2 and 4/1.

When betting on cricket I feel it is worthwhile keeping an eye on markets long term. As we get closer to the Ashes, if news of the injuries to Pietersen and Swann isn’t getting better, England will almost certainly drift on Betfair and the other betting exchanges. If you know where England’s price has been sitting, it’s easier to make a judgement call as to where you think it may go to.

(Nearly Some) Pre Match IPL Betting

I tried a bit of cricket trading on Betfair in an attempt to make some money pre match in the game between Hyderabad and Pune on Friday.

On Thursday night Pune could be backed at 1.68, they were available to lay at 1.69. I placed a lay bet up at 1.67 (£150.00, with a liability of £100.50), and went to bed. I often do this when trading football matches, and it’s amazing how many times my bets get matched and I can trade out for a profit first thing in the morning.

When I checked on Friday morning my bet hadn’t been matched and Pune had drifted out to 1.76. Then about two hours later I checked back and Pune had gone back in to 1.69, this just highlights how prices can fluctuate throughout the day for (what seems to be) no apparent reason.

The trick is to try and be on the right side of these price movements. They only need to be one or two tick movements to make money (1.69 – 1.70 is a one tick movement).

You might ask why I didn’t just take the lay price of 1.69 in the first place? And that would be a fair question, because if I had taken the lay price on Pune at 1.69 on Thursday night, I would have been in profit by Friday morning.

There is a good reason why I didn’t take the 1.69, and that is because I never normally take the available price, I usually place my lay bet one or two ticks below the available lay price.

Price movements of the nature (1.69-1.76) aren’t that common, a tick or two, yes – but not seven ticks. That’s why I lay a tick or two below the available price. This gives me more opportunity and leverage with price movements. Also, the current price could be the true price, so there is no point laying at that price, as you would need to laying below the true price to get a profit.

As a result of this, sometimes I miss out on trades such as this one. I find it is better to be a touch cautious when placing a lay bet, I believe it is better to miss out on the odd trade, rather than laying at a price that is too high.

During the week it’s hard for me too get involved in any IPL betting in running as the matches are played while I’m out at work. Trading them in this way gives me a chance to make some money on them, ok, so it’s small amounts, but any profit is ok by me.

Test Match Betting Update

The last round of Test matches are now over, and all in all they have been fairly successful from a cricket betting perspective.

I have taken this screen shot showing my cricket trading on Betfair during the 3rd Test between New Zealand and England (if you click on it you will be able to view it better).

The screen shot was taken on Day 5 and it shows the sheer amount of times I backed and placed lay bets on all three outcomes.

Just to be clear, these are consolidated prices. What this means is that I staked a total of £300.00 on New Zealand at 1.58, and a total of £600.00 on them at 1.60, etc. This doesn’t mean I actually had £600.00 in one go at 1.60, it means when you add up all my bets placed at 1.60, they totalled £600.00.

As it happens, the £600.00 was made up of 4 x £150.00 bets, and the £300.00 was 2 x £150.00, and so on. As the screen shot shows, nearly all of my New Zealand bets were £150.00 bets.

My trading on England was nearly all done before a ball was bowled. I just placed two backs and two lays in the hours before the Test match started. In the first trade I placed my back bet at 1.77 and my lay at 1.73. And in the second bet I backed England at 1.70 and placed my lay at 1.69.

I did also have a couple of quid on them at the end of Day 1 at 16 (15/1), but it proved to be worthless.

The majority of my New Zealand trading (all the ‘odds on’ backs and lays) was done before the start of Day 5. I can’t exactly remember when I did the two draw trades, but I do know that none of these bets or lays were placed during play.

All I did in general was placed my bets when there was a few hundred pounds waiting to get matched. If there was £20K waiting to get matched, I didn’t bother attempting to place a bet.

Moving on…. and I didn’t manage to make any money from betting on the 4th Test between India and Australia, which was a bit disappointing.

I think I got caught up playing things a bit over cautious. I had guaranteed winnings coming in from the New Zealand V England Test match, and I suppose I didn’t want to risk losing that money on another bet, before I had even got the winnings in my account.

The time to move was the end of Day 2 when India were 266/8 (Australia had already been bowled out for 262 in their 1st innings). India were trading on Betfair at around 1.48-150.

I considered a bet on India, but in the end I played the over cautious card – mainly because I would have been in bed for the first session and a half of Day 3, and not in a position to react if things started to go wrong.

What I figured would happen was either the Indian tail would wag and build up a biggish lead – or that the last two Indian wickets would fall cheaply, and then they would clean up the Aussie batsmen quite quickly as well.

My reluctance was down to the possibility of Australia getting off to a good start, and me being in bed and unable to trade out of my bet. In the unlikely event of me getting up to find Australia 120/1 or without loss, my bet would have been in trouble. I didn’t think this would happen, but you never know.

And strange things can often happen in dead rubbers!

I was kicking myself about missing out on the 1.48 on India, but never mind, there will be plenty more opportunities. And as I have said before, if I had played things a bit more cautious with my cricket betting in the past, I would have won a lot more often that I did.

That’s the end of Test match betting for a few weeks now. There will be plenty more betting to come though with the Indian Premier League starting soon. I will be writing my IPL betting preview over the next couple of days.

Cricket Betting – India V ICC Associates XI

What’s all the fuss about with Shikhar Dhawan?

So he scored the fastest century ever by a debutant, so what! When are people going to wake up and realise that these Test playing nations pummelling second rate bowling attacks is bad for averages and statistics. In short, it is false.

You can’t be taking records like this – or Brian Lara hammering the Zimbabwean attack (obviously in the past), etc – seriously. Until there is competitiveness at Test level, the credibility of these records will continue to fall and fall.

In all seriousness, what a performance. I know that Duncan Fletcher hasn’t always been flavour of the month with the Indian public, but we are now starting to see his side develop.

There was no way in the world a player like Sehwag (as good and exciting as he was/still is) was ever going to be a player that Fletcher was going to fancy, same can be said of Zaheer with his (lack of) fitness levels.

This is clearly a massive boost for Fletcher and his plans. The performance of Dhawan must have virtually ensured that Sehwag won’t be missed (too much) by the Indian public (although there could be an argument about how good the two of them could look together?).

Fletcher likes players in a particular mould and of a particular mentality, Sehwag (in my view) always batted for himself, not the team. Fletcher was never going to stand for that, for too long.

When Fletcher first took over he couldn’t make wholesale changes with the imminent retirements of world class performers like Dravid and Laxman, so he had to bide his time. And as soon as India were on the up, Sehwag was gone, and India are now starting to see the fruits of Fletcher’s labours.

From an English perspective, I think we hit India at a good time – when they were slap bang in the middle of their period of transition, and that clearly helped our cause. I’m not trying to take anything away from England’s performance, as our spinners out bowled the Indian ones, and Alastair Cook was virtually unplayable…. but I think it was a combination of both of these factors that led to the series result.

In the current Cricket Betting for the 3rd Test, and if you are trading on Betfair (which I am) India are currently 3.45 to back, with the Draw favourite at 1.41. Australia can be backed at a massive 190.

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Trading Cricket on Betfair

Trading Test cricket on Betfair (or on a betting exchange) can be very profitable just from trading price movements.

For example, if you have a £100.00 betting bank, it is fairly easy to win £3.00 to £5.00 a Test match as a bare minimum, and this is just by trading one to two tick price movements at a time.

Ok, so this method is a slow burner, in fact it can be a very slow burner depending on how cautious you wish to be, but if done correctly with plenty of patience and discipline it is a relatively risk free method of making money from betting on cricket.

To improve your chances of being successful using this method I believe it’s best if you work on a percentage ratio, as opposed to cash figures.

Working on a percentage basis is far better for reasons of discipline and is far better at preventing greed from taking over.

Using the £100.00 betting bank example I referred too above, it could work like this….. Instead of looking at it as £2.00 to £5.00 profit, look at it as 2% to 5% profit.

Who is going to be satisfied with winning £2.00 to £5.00 on a Test match? Not many people. That’s why working on percentages is far more practical when using this method.

Look at the long term objective. 2% to 5% of £1000.00 is a good bit more money, while 2% to 5% of £10,000.00 is a lot of money.

If you feel confident enough, you can start with £100.00 or maybe £500.00. If not, or if you merely want to experiment and see if you have the required discipline (which I have struggled with) then start with £10.00 or £20.00, and just see how you get on.

As I mentioned at the start of this blog post, you can win 2% to 5% a match just trading one tick price movements, this method can be used trading price movements before a ball is even bowled (they do happen, believe me!).

Whether it be pre match, or during a match, I would put a few quid in a betting exchange account (I use Betfair) and just have a play about with it and see how you get on.

Personally, I prefer using this cricket trading method for Test match betting. Why? Because Test cricket is more slow and serene, meaning large price swings are far less frequent, especially in the early stages of a Test match. Whereas the shorter forms of the game are more volatile and far more susceptible to big price swings.

So if you want to take it more slowly, or are new to this cricket trading method, I would recommend starting out on Test cricket.

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