Betfair Cricket Trading – Some Confidence Restored

Going into the 4th Test my confidence was a bit shot. I had made a mess of the 3rd Test by throwing away a winning position on the evening of the 3rd day, by staying in my trade and hoping for a bigger win. As has happened in the past, this can influence decisions when I next have a bet.

To start with, I do believe my performance in the 3rd Test did initially influence my decisions in the 4th Test. In the end though, I managed to put it all out of my head. I actually think I eventually did a good job of isolating my cricket trading down to just this (4th) Test match.

On Monday morning, I was happy to sit on my 5% green. That was until seeing Australia trading down at sub 1.25 in their run chase.

In isolation I thought that was worth a lay. I wasn’t convinced the lay bet would come off, but I was happy that it was a value lay. This is where I managed to put what happened in the 3rd Test out of my head and place my lay, accepting it could lose, but understanding that it represented good value. And if it did lose, I shouldn’t be too hard on myself.

If the truth be told, I didn’t expect Australia to lose the match in a session, and I had traded out long before their batting collapse. I suspected England might win, but it was never my intention to let my lay bet run, just in case they didn’t.

I placed it with a view to Australia losing two to three quick wickets and being at around 200/4 or 5, I then thought I could either trade out for at worst scratch, or a nice win. As it turned out, I got out for a nice win on the loss of Michael Clarke’s wicket.

I then left about 5% (of my betting bank) green on Australia, 30% on England, and I had a very large percentage green on the draw (which wasn’t worth laying at the high odds).

Despite the win, I still have a bit of a long term doubt in my mind though. Was my lay of Australia too risky? I know the result suggests not, but for a period of time after lunch it actually looked like my faith in England was misplaced. And realistically, the bet should have lost.

Was it a trade I placed, or was it a bet? And if it was a bet, was it a value one?

Should I have just sat on the 5% profit I had made trading the previous night?

These are decisions I need to make. Do I look for riskier big wins, or do I play safe and look to take around 5% a Test match, with minimum risk to my betting bank?

I don’t think I can continue to do a mixture of the two, I believe I need to decide one way or the other. I need to formulate a betting/trading process in my mind, and work on it until I am happy it is as good as I can get it (or maybe even perfect it).

I can’t continue losing big like I did on the 3rd Test, and wiping out 2 to 3 Test matches worth of winnings.

Ashes Betting, 4th Test, Day 4 Betting

I nearly accepted the tide had turned before play started yesterday, and as England toiled on 49/3 just after lunch yesterday, I was ready to finally admit it had.

Then along came Ian Bell, and he spared me the indignity of having to come on here today and concede defeat.

Bell has put England back on the front foot, and this is reflected in the cricket betting odds as the bookies now price it up as England 8/13 – The Draw 10/3 – Australia 10/3.

Although England are on the front foot, they are still not save. England still need the tail to wag. Matt Prior isn’t having his most productive series to date, so Ian Bell will have to stay in this morning if England are to set the Aussies 300 to win.

Rain is also predicted today, which is probably what is keeping the draw price so short.

Australia will have a good go first thing this morning, seeing them off will be the first task for Bell and Bresnan. Ryan Harris will no doubt put everything into his bowling this morning and go for broke. He has nothing to lose now, the series will be dead for Australia if they don’t win this Test match. It’s pointless Harris saving himself for the 5th Test now.

From a betfair cricket trading perspective, I managed to turn my 13% (of betting bank) loss into 5% profit with an overnight trade on the draw.

I knew there was rain expected today, at the close of play yesterday I backed the draw at 5.3, and then put a lay up at 4.4 and left it overnight. When I got up this morning, it had been matched. The draw was actually available to lay at 3.9 when I checked…. much to my frustration.

I think I will adopt a watching brief now, and wait and see if the weather offers up any decent trading opportunities.

Ashes Betting – 3rd Test Betting Preview

Even the possibility of not having Kevin Pietersen in the side didn’t really scare the punters off from backing England. The days of England needing to rely on Kevin Pietersen’s batting seem to be long gone.

The hosts looking to go into a 3-0 lead and to wrap up the series, are again – obviously – heavy favourites. Online bookmakers currently have England at 8/11 – The Draw at 11/4 – Australia are 7/2.

If Pietersen is fit, I imagine England will be unchanged, as I can’t see them playing two spinners. I’m not sure if bringing Monty Panesar into the squad was just to re-familiarise him with his team mates, or to try and further spook the Aussies about their lack of spinning options.

Australia on the other hand will almost certainly bring David Warner back into the batting line up, and will relieve Ashton Agar of his duties, with Nathan Lyon coming back in as the spinner. They will probably replace the injured James Pattinson with Mitchell Starc.

There has not been too many Test matches at Old Trafford in recent years, and the pitch has been turned around, so there is no real international form to judge the wicket on. In domestic cricket, Old Trafford is regarded as a turning pitch.

If you have been trading cricket on Betfair, you will already have noticed plenty of price fluctuations, particularly on the draw.

The draw – currently trading at around 3.80 to 3.90 – has already traded as high as 4, and down below 2.7, mainly due to the longer range weather forecast before last weekend, as opposed to Kevin Pietersen’s calf injury (in my opinion).

The more I bet on cricket, the more I see that learning to read a weather forecast is nearly as important as learning to read a cricket match. Money can be made or lost, just trading price movements based on weather forecasts.

With this Test match being played in the (probably falsely) notorious rain hotspot that is Manchester, the weather needs to be watched closely – as it always does. Despite all the reports that it is going to be fine, Friday, Saturday and Monday look dodgy to me.

This will probably lead to the draw odds shortening, but as is always the case in England, it can lead to dark clouds, swing, and shortened Test matches…. so beware!

Ashes Betting – 2nd Test Betting Preview

Another potty couple days in the world of Australian cricket, and more adverse publicity for the Aussies in the build up to the 2nd Test match starting at Lord’s on Thursday 18th July.

The Mickey Arthur furore doesn’t seem to have had any major impact on the cricket betting odds with England favourites at 10/11 to win the 2nd Test. The fact that Mickey Arthur has stirred the pot by claiming that Michael Clarke doesn’t particularly get on with Shame Watson doesn’t seem to have sent Australia backers running to the hills in fear. 
And why would it? It was hardly a well kept secret that Watson and Clarke aren’t great buddies. So why would it cause panic in the betting ranks now? 
In Ashes Test Match Betting, the bookmakers price it up as England Evens, The Draw 11/5, Australia 3/1.
Australia have a colourful recent history of players not getting on well, or players and coaches not seeing eye to eye over issues. It hasn’t done them any real harm in the past, although the players involved were the likes of Shane Warne, and he was in a slightly different class to the current bunch.
Never the less, it would be very naive to think that the relationships within the camp haven’t had an effect on the team at times, a look at the Aussies recent tour of India would suggest it has. 
It’s the extent of the personality clash that is the main thing. Is it manageable? Or is it having an adverse effect on the team? The 1st Test suggested it isn’t having a negative effect, but that was before Mickey Arthur’s unhelpful contribution. 
While I don’t doubt that Arthur may have over cooked his story of the level of disharmony to further his own needs, the words he is alleging Clarke has used to describe Watson clearly aren’t helpful.
Another thought that I have had is the relationship between Clarke and Lehmann. If Clarke’s main source of disagreement with Watson is over where he bats, what will Clarke make of Lehmann’s decision to put Watson back up to open? It’s surely a slap in the face for Michael Clarke?
Anyway, enough of that, onto cricket trading. Four of the last five Test matches at Lord’s have had a positive result. The last draw was England V Sri Lanka back in 2011. 
Last year’s Test match with South Africa was played in similar conditions to this one, and I believe it probably would have been a draw had England not had to go for bust to try and salvage something from the series.

The earlier Test this year against New Zealand was played in very differing conditions. I’d imagine that most of the Test matches played at Lord’s over the last few years haven’t been played in as batsman friendly conditions as we are currently experiencing in England. 

My conclusion of that is that I expect the draw price to trade low in this Test match, but I’m not convinced that the match won’t be a draw. Then again, after the 1st innings batting of both sides in the 1st Test, surely anything is possible.
I expect the draw to come in from it’s current 3.50 over the next couple of days. But I couldn’t back it (for a trade) with any certainty, as it’s not impossible to envisage either side being all out on Day 1. If players bat properly, then I expect a slower paced Test match with the draw shortening, but as we seen at Trent Bridge, nothing is certain with these two teams.

Ashes Betting 1st Test, Day 5

Famous last words here, it looks likes England’s Test match now, but such has been the up and down nature of this Ashes Test match so far, I don’t think that can be said with any certainty.

The latest Ashes betting odds on the 1st Test are England 1/5 – The Draw 66/1 – Australia 10/3 (free £25 bet for new customers)

Put it another way and into a cricket betting perspective, I’ve backed many a 1/5 shot over the years, as some of them are buying money… but I’m not going near this one.

I expect England to win, but I’m not certain as this is just one of those Test matches where it seems better to just expect the unexpected. In the cold light of day, I don’t see Australia getting near 300, but matches like this can play with the mind, so I’m steering well clear.

I did try and do a bit of cricket trading on Betfair on the 2nd innings runs markets. At the start of Day 4, I placed a bet of England scoring under 375 runs at long odds, so lost there. I then did a bit of trading on the Australian 2nd innings runs market, I initially backed them to score under 200 runs, but I had to go out yesterday afternoon, so I placed a back of over 200 runs before I went out, ensuring a small profit either way (assuming it got matched, which it did). I would have left it and (hopefully) traded it for a better price had I been staying in.

I also placed a lay of Under 300 runs for Australia, there was a few pounds sitting there looking to back it at 1.6, so I obliged and accepted the bet. I will try and cover my loss for a small bet when the market picks up as Day 5 starts.

The innings runs’ markets have been fairly quiet so far, I know they generally are, but I was expecting a bit more activity in them during an Ashes series. Maybe they will pick up a bit in the 2nd Test, they can give cricket betting punters an alternative market to get involved in when the ‘outright winner test match betting market’ is not offering much value.

Ashes Betting – 1st Test, Day 3

Day 2 seen another fascinating day of Ashes cricket with plenty of action, drama, and no shortage of controversy chucked into the mix…. and even a couple of world records.

With England only 15 runs ahead and already two 2nd innings wickets down (at 80/2), the Test match looks finely balanced to me, although the punters and online bookmakers are still well behind England as the hosts are odds on favourites.

England 4/7 – The Draw 10/1 – Australia 7/4 (there is a £25.00 free bet for new customers available using this link)

A couple of early England wickets on Day 3 will firmly put the Aussies back in the driving seat. England need at least one solid partnership to get a good lead, and I don’t think they can leave Australia chasing anything under the 250-260 mark. Even on a wearing pitch, the Aussies should fancy themselves chasing around 250 in decent batting conditions, starting on Day 3.

If England can bat all day today and make Australia chase on Day 4, they will be looking at 300 plus runs to get to win, and I believe that will be a totally different proposition.

I didn’t touch my own cricket trades yesterday. I’m still standing to win on all three outcomes, with my heaviest profit on the Draw. It’s not worth laying it at the current price, so I will just sit on it and hope that it shortens at some point over the next couple of days (I still expect a result).

My prediction of backing the draw at 15.5, and laying at sub 10 for a free bet on the draw, or small all round green, didn’t quite go to plan yesterday as Australia slumped to 117/9, and the draw went out to about 28 -30. I did wonder why I had wrote that at this stage of the Test match.

As is generally the case when trading cricket on Betfair though, the draw did come back in as Ashton Agar hammered England’s suspect tail ender bowling around on his way to 98. I did see the draw touching 10 while he was on the charge. And I did say this was dependent on some sensible batting – which didn’t arrive until about 5pm last night. Ironically, the draw is back where it was at this time yesterday now.

This Test match is too close to call, and from a cricket betting perspective I am just leaving it now and sitting on my previous trades. I will only get involved again if the draw all of a sudden shortens, as I have plenty of green to lay off. Even given the unpredictable nature of this Test match so far, I think that this is probably a long shot now….. famous last words!

Latest Ashes Betting – Day 2

That was certainly a fairly explosive start to the series. It probably blew a lot of best planned Ashes bets and theories out of the window already, as I would imagine that not too many punters predicted 14 wickets would fall on the first day.

I personally expected a handful of wickets would fall, but nothing like that. I was off the view that after a dodgy first day, conditions (and the match) would settle down as the wicket and conditions might play in to the batsmen’s hands, and as a result the draw might be short enough to oppose late on Day 2 or into Day 3.

And then hopefully by Day 4, the pitch would deteriorate and would take spin, and we would get a result. Yesterday’s events have ruined that idea, as the draw is now 14/1.

After Day 1’s play, the latest Ashes betting sees the Test match priced up as England 8/15 – The Draw 14/1 – Australia 9/5 (there is a £25.00 Free Bet available using this link).

Not easy to say where the value is there to be honest. Australia are only 140 runs behind and one good partnership should see them with a first innings lead. Even so, England will surely bat better in the second innings and set Australia a testing target on a wearing pitch. I suppose that’s what is currently making England heavy odds on favourites.

In the unlikely event it becomes an option, I can’t see England declaring until the game is well out of sight. They will not take any risks there in the 1st Test.

If you are trading cricket on Betfair, I still think there is possibly some value in the draw at 15.5. If – and that is a big if on yesterday’s showing – there is some sensible batting, in good batting conditions, along with the threat of thunder storms on Saturday (assuming we get that far), the draw might see a bit of value.

I only see this as the case for a trade though, as I expect a result in this match…. and as I eluded too above, we are relying on some sensible batting – which looks a bit too much to ask.

A free bet on the draw could be obtained if you fancy the draw though, as I expect it will be possible to lay it at sub 10 some time over the next couple of days.

After some pre match draw trades, and the way I traded the match yesterday, I have my largest green on the draw. I am currently happy to leave it there and hope that the match does settle down and I can lay some of it off at better odds later in the Test match.

Completed Match Market On Betfair

As I have stated on this website many times before, there is plenty more to betting on cricket than just picking Team A to beat Team B, and the ‘Completed Match’ market on Betfair is a prime example of one such alternative cricket betting option. You can open a new Betfair account here and get yourself a £30.00 Free Bet.

For those not familiar with it, this is a market available on limited overs matches where we can bet on whether or not there will be an ‘official result’ in the match. On Betfair it is simply a ‘completed match’ market, and you bet on the ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ outcome.

To explain this in more detail, if a limited overs match gets rained off without a ball bowled, it is a ‘no result.’ If the minimum amount of overs aren’t bowled to constitute a match, it is also a ‘no result.’ In both these instances, ‘No,’ would be declared the winner in the completed match market on Betfair.

In a rain effected T20, 5 overs a side can be bowled. Or 20 overs a side could be bowled in a 50 over ODI match. In both these cases, this would (normally) constitute a match and mean an official result can be declared. In these instances, ‘Yes,’ would be the market winner.

In general the completed match market is fairly benign, as cricket is normally played in good weather, and there is generally an official result. Put some rain in the air though, and this market can turn into a panic stricken, betting frenzy.

It seems that punters take leave of their senses, they just seem to bet on what they see in front of their eyes at that precise moment. ie, rain, covers being brought on to the pitch, etc. There appears to be little thought going in to what might happen in 10 minutes time, ie, it stops raining, the covers come off, and the game is
played to a conclusion with no further interruptions.

Yes, there are plenty of shrewd punters out there checking weather radars and thinking ahead, but the general masses seem to bet on instinct. And the sight of rain seems to trigger that instinct and send the market into hysteria. It just goes crazy, with what appears to be bonkers bets placed on it.

In India’s recent ICC Champions Trophy final victory over England, the ‘No’ outcome got backed in to below 1.10. People were betting on it at odds of 1/10, and lower, it was pure madness. If you stop and think about it for a minute, the ICC were always going to pull out all the stops to get a game of some sort on…. and yet people still backed ‘No’ into sub 1/10.

I actually seen two screenshots from cricket betting punters on Twitter before this game had even finished, one had over £7k green on either outcome, and other guy had over £9K green on either outcome (result, or no result, in both instances). I’m not saying it is easy to win this amount, as I certainly haven’t, but it just gives an example of the sort of possibilities this market can throw up.

Favouritism in this market can flip over from one side to the other numerous times during a rainy day. Events like this gives Betfair cricket traders a great chance to win big with little outlay. If we can lay at sub 1.10, or even sub 1.20, we can lay larger amounts without breaking our betting banks if things go wrong.

If you are betting on this market, always be sure you are well aware of what the playing conditions are, ie, minimum number of overs needed to be bowled by both sides to constitute a match, is there a reserve day? etc.

They will vary depending on what format of cricket it is (50 Over, T20, domestic 40 over, etc), and can vary from series to series even in the same formats, so be careful there.

If you are a new starter thinking of having a go in this particular cricket betting market, wait for a rain effected match and just play around with a minimal amount of cash and watch the market to see how it behaves. You will be both surprised and shocked.

Related Reading…..

Cricket Betting Carnage On Betfair

Trading cricket on Betfair can be a volatile business, and yesterday’s on-off game between India and Pakistan seen absolute carnage on the betting exchanges. The market in question was the completed match market.

20 overs a side constitutes a match in this Champions Trophy, that is the minimum amount of overs both sides have to face to achieve an official result (unless a team gets bowled out in less than 20 overs).

The completed match market is where you can bet on whether there is an official result. ie, the recent washed out Champions Trophy game between Australia and New Zealand was a ‘no result,’ so in the completed match market, it would have been ‘No.’

Yesterday’s game between India and Pakistan had an official result (India won), so in the completed match market, it was ‘Yes.’

At various stages yesterday, the match looked certain to be a wash out, and at various stages it looked certain to be completed. At times the completed match market on Betfair looked to be all over the place, punters seem to get spooked very easily and panic seems to always ensue.

I can’t work out whether people are betting on what they think will happen, or how they think the market will behave, or just in blind panic.

To clarify that last statement in a bit more detail…. sometimes I might not know whether a match will be completed or not, so I won’t have a bet on it.

If the players are off the pitch for rain, the sight of a bit of blue sky, or covers coming off the wicket, will usually trigger a betting surge in the market, meaning I can back ‘Yes’ in the completed match market, and then trade out (for hopefully a nice profit) when the price plunges. And vice versa if the players are on the field and it starts to rain.

This is more what I would call cricket trading, as opposed to cricket betting.

Anyway, back to yesterday. And the screenshot below shows just how much money was traded on the ‘completed match market’ outcome.

At one stage yesterday when Pakistan were batting, during the first rain break, the ‘No’ outcome was trading down at odds on, in the belief that a large storm was heading to Birmingham later in the day.

Then after that threat had passed over with limited damage and while India batted early in their (reduced) innings, ‘Yes’ was trading at down below 1.10. Then while they were off for the final rain interruption ‘No’ was trading at sub 1.05 as shown above.

I then watched as the ‘No’ price went from under 1.05 to around 4/1 in a matter of about two minutes as the covers were removed. This wasn’t a massive surprise, the surprise was that the ‘No’ outcome had got backed down to as low as it did. It was absolute carnage.

This just goes to show the opportunities that are there to profit from trading cricket on Betfair. It can be costly if you get it wrong, but can be brilliant when you get it right. I think the trick is too lay at low prices, so if you do find yourself on the wrong side of the outcome your losses are minimal.

The screenshot above is testament to this, you would had been far better off laying 1.05. If you lay £100.00 at that price you lose a fiver. So what!

This is where we get the value. A bet at Even money in these events is pretty much a toss of a coin gamble (unless you trade straight out for a small profit), more akin to a Casino bet. Whereas a lay at odds like sub 1.10, is a calculated risk.

It’s not always the case, and every event should be judged on it’s own merits, but at least you shouldn’t go bankrupt laying at those prices….. like some people probably did yesterday.

England V New Zealand 2nd Test Betting Review

As I said in yesterday’s post (pre start of Day 5), this was one hell of a topsy turvy affair from a cricket betting perspective. From the close of play on Monday night, up until the last rights on Tuesday afternoon, I don’t know how many times England traded down at sub 1.5, and then above Even money on Betfair.

Trading cricket on Betfair can be very dangerous when the price is jumping up and down in that manner. In betting terms, it was more like the end of a closely fought ODI or T20 match, where the match favourite switches on almost every ball.

I did stupidly get involved during the kamikazi period of trading after play had finished on Day 4. I was already in a strong position at the time (about £50 green on the draw and the same on England), but I just couldn’t resist the urge to try and make a few extra quid trading a couple of ticks here and there as the price settled down at the end of play.

It worked the first time and I managed to make a couple of quid (England were trading at around 1.92-1.96 at the time), the second time I wasn’t so lucky as the England price crashed (to around 1.60) with only my lay matched.

I wasn’t overly concerned as I knew it was supposed to start raining before play started on Day 5, so I knew/hoped the price would come back – which it did very early on Tuesday morning.

I managed to get out of that hole, so to prove to myself that I will probably never learn, I did a couple more small price movement trades before the scheduled start on Day 5, and then I eventually left it.

I initially did the bulk of my trading between the end of play on Day 3, and the start of play on Day 4. I hadn’t really got involved much before then, except for a small loss, pre toss.

At the end of Day 3, England were trading at 1.30. I thought was a ridiculous price, given the weather forecast for Day 5 was showing a possible wash out.

At that moment in time, it looked like England would have to wrap the match up on Day 4, as there looked little chance of any/much play on Day 5. So that meant they would have had to bat New Zealand out of the match, declare, and then bowl the Kiwi’s out in a day – or the weather forecast for Day 5, would have to drastically improve.

With this in mind, I thought 1.30 on England was just way to short, and I just had to lay England. I couldn’t believe this price, the market didn’t seem to be factoring the Day 5 weather into the odds at all.

Either I was going mad, or the market knew something I didn’t!

Anyway, it appeared that I wasn’t going mad as the penny finally dropped, and by the time play started on Day 4, England had drifted out to 1.65 on Betfair.

I had traded out long before this (mainly due to the erratic way the market seemed to be behaving), but I was kicking myself that I didn’t follow my instincts and stay in longer to win more. Greed has done for me many times in the past, but I think this wouldn’t have been greed, it would have been a calculated risk – that turned out to be correct. I think I was definitely too over cautious here.

What makes it all the more worse, is the silly trades I then went and got involved in between the end of play on Day 4, and the start of Day 5 – where I clearly wasn’t in any way cautious, or responsible.

Anyway it all worked out well in the end and I ended up with a nice £45.81 win. I do think that I could have traded the Test match a lot better than I did at times though.

Below is a screenshot of my how my cricket trading on Betfair finished up, it was taken just before England wrapped up their victory.