Test Match Betting – Zimbabwe V Bangladesh

How I greened up my cricket bets on the test match between Zimbabwe and Bangladesh.

I did a bit of cricket betting this week on the Zimbabwe V Bangladesh test match, currently taking place in the shadow of the IPL. Above is the screenshot I took after Day 2’s play had finished, it shows the cricket bets that I placed overnight after Day 1’s play had finished (before the start of Day 2’s play).

Sometimes when a test match – or any cricket match, for that matter – isn’t regarded as a big game (in the world of cricket betting), trading can be a bit slow. This is no bad thing though, as it opens up some nice big gaps in the market that can be exploited with a bit of patience and discipline.

In total, I did two cricket bets at the end of Day 1’s play. At the time I placed my first bets the draw was trading at 2.34 to back and 2.36 to lay. I placed my back bet of the draw at 2.36 for £125.00, and then placed my lay at 2.28 (for £125.00). I then left my computer, and when I checked back about an hour later they had both been matched.
At this stage the draw had come in to about 2.30, but I noticed that there was a massive gap in the market below 2.30. So I put a lay bet up at 2.22, and a back bet at 2.34 – again for £125.00, and I then went to bed.
I got up in the morning expecting/hoping the back bet to be matched, but not really the lay bet, I was amazed to find both had been matched.
It was my intention to have my back bet matched (at 2.34), and hopefully find in the morning that I could lay at 2.30 to 2.32. The worst case scenario I thought I might find was the price had drifted out to about 2.36, meaning a slight loss on that trade (but I would still have been in overall profit from the first trade).  
Anyway, when I did check my bets to find they had been matched, the draw was available to lay at 2.38 (a bit worse than my overnight worst case scenario , which I then did for £10.50, to level out my profit across all three outcomes.
This all means that overnight the draw traded at 2.22 when the market was quiet. It must have been a falsely low price, as it was trading at 2.36 (to back), and 2.38 (to lay), about an hour before the second day’s play got under way.
This just goes to show how a market can fluctuate greatly – and how money can still be made – when there isn’t much money in it.

Test Match Betting Update

The last round of Test matches are now over, and all in all they have been fairly successful from a cricket betting perspective.

I have taken this screen shot showing my cricket trading on Betfair during the 3rd Test between New Zealand and England (if you click on it you will be able to view it better).

The screen shot was taken on Day 5 and it shows the sheer amount of times I backed and placed lay bets on all three outcomes.

Just to be clear, these are consolidated prices. What this means is that I staked a total of £300.00 on New Zealand at 1.58, and a total of £600.00 on them at 1.60, etc. This doesn’t mean I actually had £600.00 in one go at 1.60, it means when you add up all my bets placed at 1.60, they totalled £600.00.

As it happens, the £600.00 was made up of 4 x £150.00 bets, and the £300.00 was 2 x £150.00, and so on. As the screen shot shows, nearly all of my New Zealand bets were £150.00 bets.

My trading on England was nearly all done before a ball was bowled. I just placed two backs and two lays in the hours before the Test match started. In the first trade I placed my back bet at 1.77 and my lay at 1.73. And in the second bet I backed England at 1.70 and placed my lay at 1.69.

I did also have a couple of quid on them at the end of Day 1 at 16 (15/1), but it proved to be worthless.

The majority of my New Zealand trading (all the ‘odds on’ backs and lays) was done before the start of Day 5. I can’t exactly remember when I did the two draw trades, but I do know that none of these bets or lays were placed during play.

All I did in general was placed my bets when there was a few hundred pounds waiting to get matched. If there was £20K waiting to get matched, I didn’t bother attempting to place a bet.

Moving on…. and I didn’t manage to make any money from betting on the 4th Test between India and Australia, which was a bit disappointing.

I think I got caught up playing things a bit over cautious. I had guaranteed winnings coming in from the New Zealand V England Test match, and I suppose I didn’t want to risk losing that money on another bet, before I had even got the winnings in my account.

The time to move was the end of Day 2 when India were 266/8 (Australia had already been bowled out for 262 in their 1st innings). India were trading on Betfair at around 1.48-150.

I considered a bet on India, but in the end I played the over cautious card – mainly because I would have been in bed for the first session and a half of Day 3, and not in a position to react if things started to go wrong.

What I figured would happen was either the Indian tail would wag and build up a biggish lead – or that the last two Indian wickets would fall cheaply, and then they would clean up the Aussie batsmen quite quickly as well.

My reluctance was down to the possibility of Australia getting off to a good start, and me being in bed and unable to trade out of my bet. In the unlikely event of me getting up to find Australia 120/1 or without loss, my bet would have been in trouble. I didn’t think this would happen, but you never know.

And strange things can often happen in dead rubbers!

I was kicking myself about missing out on the 1.48 on India, but never mind, there will be plenty more opportunities. And as I have said before, if I had played things a bit more cautious with my cricket betting in the past, I would have won a lot more often that I did.

That’s the end of Test match betting for a few weeks now. There will be plenty more betting to come though with the Indian Premier League starting soon. I will be writing my IPL betting preview over the next couple of days.

Trading Cricket on Betfair

Trading Test cricket on Betfair (or on a betting exchange) can be very profitable just from trading price movements.

For example, if you have a £100.00 betting bank, it is fairly easy to win £3.00 to £5.00 a Test match as a bare minimum, and this is just by trading one to two tick price movements at a time.

Ok, so this method is a slow burner, in fact it can be a very slow burner depending on how cautious you wish to be, but if done correctly with plenty of patience and discipline it is a relatively risk free method of making money from betting on cricket.

To improve your chances of being successful using this method I believe it’s best if you work on a percentage ratio, as opposed to cash figures.

Working on a percentage basis is far better for reasons of discipline and is far better at preventing greed from taking over.

Using the £100.00 betting bank example I referred too above, it could work like this….. Instead of looking at it as £2.00 to £5.00 profit, look at it as 2% to 5% profit.

Who is going to be satisfied with winning £2.00 to £5.00 on a Test match? Not many people. That’s why working on percentages is far more practical when using this method.

Look at the long term objective. 2% to 5% of £1000.00 is a good bit more money, while 2% to 5% of £10,000.00 is a lot of money.

If you feel confident enough, you can start with £100.00 or maybe £500.00. If not, or if you merely want to experiment and see if you have the required discipline (which I have struggled with) then start with £10.00 or £20.00, and just see how you get on.

As I mentioned at the start of this blog post, you can win 2% to 5% a match just trading one tick price movements, this method can be used trading price movements before a ball is even bowled (they do happen, believe me!).

Whether it be pre match, or during a match, I would put a few quid in a betting exchange account (I use Betfair) and just have a play about with it and see how you get on.

Personally, I prefer using this cricket trading method for Test match betting. Why? Because Test cricket is more slow and serene, meaning large price swings are far less frequent, especially in the early stages of a Test match. Whereas the shorter forms of the game are more volatile and far more susceptible to big price swings.

So if you want to take it more slowly, or are new to this cricket trading method, I would recommend starting out on Test cricket.

To open a Betfair account and receive a £25.00 Free Bet, please click here….

Cricket Betting – A small back of India

The 1st Test between India and New Zealand starts in a few hours and I have decided that I am going to have a small few quid on an Indian win.
I’ve checked online, and there is a bit of weather due from Day 2 onwards in the shape of thunder storms, but given a price of  around 1.75 on India at home against a fragile looking New Zealand outfit, I feel it is a bet worth taking.
The reports I have read pre match suggesting that India are in a state of transmission may be true, but only to an extent. Yes, they are moving on from the Dravid and Laxman era, but they still have a fairly formidable looking team with Gambhir, Sehwag, Kohli, Tendulkar, Raina, Dhoni, Zaheer, etc in it.
In contrast, New Zealand have just lost a series against an improving West Indian side quite convincingly. I thought that at times they looked dogged and showed a bit of grit, but ultimately they were no where near strong enough to cope with West Indies. So why should they trouble India in India?
I’ve done a bit of online homework here. There was a recent Test match between the two sides on this ground back in November 2010 that ended in a high scoring draw. The wicket is still regarded as one that favours batting, but taking a closer look at the game back in 2010 shows that it had some mitigating circumstances.
In that match Brendon McCullun scored a double century in the New Zealand 2nd Innings, without which I believe India would have won as the only other telling (2nd Innings) contributions were a 49 and a 69. A double century is not going to happen too often.
Also 15 of the 28 wickets to fall in that game fell to the spinners, suggesting that the pitch takes a bit of spin, something that I don’t believe the Kiwi batsmen will fancy too much.
So in the cricket betting why the high India price? Maybe because of the high scoring draw last time out, maybe because of the bad weather in the area, or maybe a bit of both. I’m not sure, but I do think that India look a touch over priced.
A note of caution to myself though. Due to the bad weather and the fact that I am going away for the weekend (I may not be able to get the chance to adjust my bets if needed), I am only having a small wager. I may also trade out early on in the match if the market swings my way, just in case of the weather.
Some bad weather may also open another window of opportunity later on in the match, assuming I’m not already in a big hole (like I have been a bit too much recently).
I know I said in my last posting about being patient from now on, but if New Zealand bat first and collapse on Day 1, the price will vanish. But the fact that ‘showing patience’ is supposed to be my new mandate, is why I’m only going in small. 
Good luck to all who get involved.