Ashes Betting, 4th Test, Day 4 Betting

I nearly accepted the tide had turned before play started yesterday, and as England toiled on 49/3 just after lunch yesterday, I was ready to finally admit it had.

Then along came Ian Bell, and he spared me the indignity of having to come on here today and concede defeat.

Bell has put England back on the front foot, and this is reflected in the cricket betting odds as the bookies now price it up as England 8/13 – The Draw 10/3 – Australia 10/3.

Although England are on the front foot, they are still not save. England still need the tail to wag. Matt Prior isn’t having his most productive series to date, so Ian Bell will have to stay in this morning if England are to set the Aussies 300 to win.

Rain is also predicted today, which is probably what is keeping the draw price so short.

Australia will have a good go first thing this morning, seeing them off will be the first task for Bell and Bresnan. Ryan Harris will no doubt put everything into his bowling this morning and go for broke. He has nothing to lose now, the series will be dead for Australia if they don’t win this Test match. It’s pointless Harris saving himself for the 5th Test now.

From a betfair cricket trading perspective, I managed to turn my 13% (of betting bank) loss into 5% profit with an overnight trade on the draw.

I knew there was rain expected today, at the close of play yesterday I backed the draw at 5.3, and then put a lay up at 4.4 and left it overnight. When I got up this morning, it had been matched. The draw was actually available to lay at 3.9 when I checked…. much to my frustration.

I think I will adopt a watching brief now, and wait and see if the weather offers up any decent trading opportunities.

Ashes Betting, 4th Test, Day 3 Betting

I’m on the verge of accepting momentum has turned, but not quite yet. Definitely Australia’s Test match so far, and this is reflected in the betting, as the online bookmakers now have Australia as odds on favourite.

The current cricket betting odds are Australia 4/5 – England  5/2 – The Draw 3/1.

I think the odds represent a fair reflection of where the match is. It isn’t impossible for England to get back in this Test match. If they could bowl Australia out with a 50 run lead and then bat well, they could regain parity.

Even if England could bowl Australia out cheaply this morning (the more likely of the two scenarios), they haven’t shown the form with the bat to suggest they could bat Australia out of the Test match though.

Rain is in the air later for Day 4 and 5, so that keeps the Draw in with a slight chance.

I was very happy for Chris Rogers getting his century. It was a good innings, possibly a match winning one. He threatened it at Old Trafford, and I was pleased to see him complete the job this time.

Rogers unfortunately seems to be one of these ‘unfashionable’ cricketers who will never be accepted by some, and will always have that stopgap feel about his career. Not my view, just the vibe I pick up. So it’s good to see him get some glory and positive headlines for a change.

I seen Mike Selvey tweet earlier that it was the best century of the series so far, not sure I’d totally agree that it was the outright best, but it’s certainly up there with the earlier Bell centuries as one of the best of the series.  

I’m in a bit of a hole with my Betfair cricket trading. I was laying Australia yesterday, and things were going well up until the Rogers, Watson partnership. I suppose I can’t keep expecting Watson to get himself out in the 20’s, so serves me right.

It’s not a massive all round loss, about 13% of betting bank at the moment. Although I’m not convinced Australia will win, I think I will play safe and square my loss up this morning, and just take my medicine. My main concern is that I just can’t rely on England’s batting.

Ashes Betting, 4th Test, Day 2 Betting

Australia are certainly in the driving seat after yesterday’s odd display from England, and the online bookmakers now make the visitors the favourites.

The cricket betting odds for this match are now Australia 10/11 – England 11/8 – The Draw 11/2.

The draw price collapsed yesterday along with England’s batting. I still wouldn’t completely rule it out as the weather is a bit unpredictable, but from what we have seen of the majority of the batting so far in this series, it would be a brave call to predict we could get enough quality batting, or rain, to prevent a result here.

Yesterday I pretty much dismissed talk of Australia having all the momentum as over hyped rubbish. I’m standing by that – for the time being. Or to be more accurate, I’m standing by that until after Australia have batted on this wicket (in the hope they will also collapse).

Fair play to Nathan Lyons, with all the mixed signals he seems to get from the Aussie hierarchy it’s no wonder he looks about 15 years older than he is, but I was generally pleased for him yesterday.

He has had to endure getting dropped for the unknown Ashton Agar, and then put up with all the talk of Fawad Ahmed getting drafted in as some sort of super hero. A bloke who in is in his 30’s, and for some unknown reason – despite having not made it yet – is being lorded as some sort of spin bowling saviour of Australian cricket.

None of which can be too helpful for Nathan Lyon’s confidence.
  
As for England, I don’t quite get exactly what they were trying to do yesterday. I kind of got the morning session, get through a tricky spell of testing conditions and the new ball….. but after that???

After lunch it seemed to be all out attack one minute, followed by a spell of block, block, and more blocking, the next. The only consistent thing from lunch onwards, was the continuous fall of English wickets. Usually when England collapse, it’s done in a cavalier manner, yesterday was just odd and very confusing.

In all fairness Australia played well yesterday. I don’t want to make it sound like I’m saying the match situation is as it is because England were rubbish, as in the main, it’s down to the Aussies bowling well.

I’m not convinced Australia won’t also struggle on this wicket though. Conditions could be bowler friendly on Saturday, and England may well be able to bowl their way back into the match.

Alternatively, it could already be the case that England haven’t got enough runs to defend. The momentum may have already turned, and it could well be the case that I’m wrong again.

Ashes Betting, 4th Test Betting Preview

If all the reports are to be believed, Australia are in the driving seat, they have all the momentum, and now should roll England over quite easily in the 4th and 5th Test matches to draw the series 2-2.

And that’s just for starters, after that, they are going to destroy England in the return series down under.

Don’t quite see it that way myself. England don’t have to be cautious any more, I think the pressure is off them now, and I expect them to be more like the England side that played at Lord’s.

I agree that England were poor and outplayed at Old Trafford, and Australia would have easily won, had it not been for the rain. They certainly need to buck their ideas up ahead of the 4th Test, that’s for sure. They seem to have slipped into a ‘let’s just do enough mentality,’ and that could cost them in the long run.

That doesn’t mean this will be the pattern that the rest of the series will follow though, despite what the media have been telling us all week.

Cricket betting punters seem to disagree with much of the media also. If Australia are so nailed on why are the cricket betting odds as follows???

England are 10/11 – The Draw is 13/5 – Australia are 11/4

We could be wrong though, I certainly was with my betfair cricket trading selections last weekend!!! There was a point on Saturday when I could have traded out for a nice profit, but I decided to stay in my trade, and it ended up costing me all of my series winnings so far.

When Matt Prior and Stuart Broad were at the crease, I could have took a reasonable size win there and then. Instead I took the position that Australia might wrap up the tail, and I could win more. I don’t think that was the worst trading tactic to employ, my mistake was not getting out for scratch after it didn’t happen.

Even after that I could have got out for a single figure loss, but I put too much emphasise on believing Michael Clarke would make a generous declaration, and in my delusion, took my eye off the weather. My mistake, and I rightly got punished for it.

Onto today’s Test match, and like Old Trafford, Durham’s Riverside Stadium doesn’t have much recent Test match history to go on (this is only the grounds fifth Test match).

In the past, I’ve regarded Durham as a seaming wicket, which I believe is more down to the groundsman preparing pitches to suit Durham’s strength – for Steve Harmison and Graham Onions, etc. If Andy Flower has had any of his usual negative influence on the type of pitch we will get, that is the last sort of wicket we will see this week. It will be like every other pitch we have had so far this series.

Will England shake the bowling up? And will Australia play Ryan Harris in back to back Test matches? Those are the two main questions. England like Bresnan and Braod for their batting, even though they are picked to bowl.

The Aussies will probably tinker with the batting line up and bruise Shane Watson’s ego. I don’t see him getting dropped, as he is an invaluable 5th bowler. Australia’s Paul Collingwood if you like 🙂

Ashes Betting – Looks Like The Weather Wins!

Not much to be had here from a cricket betting perspective, as the match is over barring a miracle. For anyone still fancying a bet, the odds are, The Draw 1/100 – Australia 16/1 – England 66/1

I’ve made a bit of a mess with my trading of this Test match. I started off with a lay of Australia, and had I left things as they were, I would be in a nice position now.

On Saturday I finished off by stating be very careful if trading the draw. Apparently incapable of heeding my own advice, this is exactly what I didn’t do, and I now find myself looking down the barrel of a nice big loss. I wasn’t quick enough at cashing out last night when the Umpires were conferring over the light, and the rest is history.

It was totally my own fault, as I knew it was time to get out, but didn’t move quickly enough to get the desired price. And then I dug in hoping the weather might come good today, which it doesn’t look like doing, so 100% my own stupid fault.

Moving onto the Umpires, and I’ve tried to steer clear of criticising them in this series so far, but my patience has finally run out with the ridiculous decision to take players off for bad light yesterday. Yes, the conditions weren’t great, but international cricket has been played in far worse conditions than that.

The Umpires will be able to hide behind the law book when attempting to justify this decision, but it is yet another example of cricket shooting itself in the foot. And it wasn’t the only bad call from the Umpires yesterday, as they either didn’t notice (hard to believe), or chose to do nothing about England’s continued time wasting tactics – another thing that doesn’t help the image of cricket.

Onto a more positive note, and I’ve been impressed with David Warner’s attitude with all the stick and mickey taking he has had to endure in this Test match. Yes, he has brought it all on himself, but he has laughed it off and handled it all in quite an impressive manner.

From what we have been led to believe by the media, Warner is an explosive temperamental character who is quite likely to throw his toys out of his pram in the face of such banter, but the evidence I can see suggests this not to be the case.

Ashes Betting – 3rd Test Day 3, Betting Preview

If the bookmakers odds are too believed, it looks like we are betting on either an Australian win, or some good old fashioned English weather, in this Test match.

The odds are currently, The Draw 4/7 – Australia 6/4 – England 16/1

Any remote thoughts of an England win in this Test match disappeared not long after lunch on Friday, and it now looks like England have slipped into survival mode.

Joe Root’s painful innings and the decision to send in Bresnan as (some sort of) night watchman with around 30 minutes of play left certainly gave off a massive negative vibe from the England dressing room.

Not that I’m suggesting they should be going all out for a win from this position, as I’m not, that would be stupid. But I do feel a little more positive intent wouldn’t go amiss (watch me slagging England off tomorrow now for throwing their wickets away).

Not much value to be had from trading the outright winner result on Betfair. I’ve tried to nick a couple of quid here and there to get rid of my current single figure losing position, but have had little success there.

It seems like it is going to be a case of the draw shortening every time a partnership develops, and then it will sharply jump at the fall of a wicket, only to shorten again almost immediately afterwards. Could be some money to be made there I suppose, but it can be a risky strategy.

If you lay first and England drop anchor and bat out a session without losing a wicket, the draw price will vanish. If you back first, and England lose a couple of quick wickets, you will playing a waiting game for the price to come back in again.

The weather forecast for Sunday and Monday doesn’t look great either, but the mid range one didn’t look too clever for Friday or today either.

All in all, be very careful if trading the draw.

Ashes Betting – 3rd Test Betting Preview

Even the possibility of not having Kevin Pietersen in the side didn’t really scare the punters off from backing England. The days of England needing to rely on Kevin Pietersen’s batting seem to be long gone.

The hosts looking to go into a 3-0 lead and to wrap up the series, are again – obviously – heavy favourites. Online bookmakers currently have England at 8/11 – The Draw at 11/4 – Australia are 7/2.

If Pietersen is fit, I imagine England will be unchanged, as I can’t see them playing two spinners. I’m not sure if bringing Monty Panesar into the squad was just to re-familiarise him with his team mates, or to try and further spook the Aussies about their lack of spinning options.

Australia on the other hand will almost certainly bring David Warner back into the batting line up, and will relieve Ashton Agar of his duties, with Nathan Lyon coming back in as the spinner. They will probably replace the injured James Pattinson with Mitchell Starc.

There has not been too many Test matches at Old Trafford in recent years, and the pitch has been turned around, so there is no real international form to judge the wicket on. In domestic cricket, Old Trafford is regarded as a turning pitch.

If you have been trading cricket on Betfair, you will already have noticed plenty of price fluctuations, particularly on the draw.

The draw – currently trading at around 3.80 to 3.90 – has already traded as high as 4, and down below 2.7, mainly due to the longer range weather forecast before last weekend, as opposed to Kevin Pietersen’s calf injury (in my opinion).

The more I bet on cricket, the more I see that learning to read a weather forecast is nearly as important as learning to read a cricket match. Money can be made or lost, just trading price movements based on weather forecasts.

With this Test match being played in the (probably falsely) notorious rain hotspot that is Manchester, the weather needs to be watched closely – as it always does. Despite all the reports that it is going to be fine, Friday, Saturday and Monday look dodgy to me.

This will probably lead to the draw odds shortening, but as is always the case in England, it can lead to dark clouds, swing, and shortened Test matches…. so beware!

Ashes Betting – 2nd Test, Day 4

A fairly slow day on Saturday seen England bat Australia out of the 2nd Test and put themselves in a position to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the series. The damage was done on Friday, and from a cricket betting perspective the Test match was over thanks to Australia’s abject batting performance.

For anyone still brave enough to have a bet on this Test match, the online bookmakers are pricing it up as follows….England are 1/16 – The Draw 8/1 – Australia 33/1.

The big question today really is when will England declare? Australia are already 566 runs behind, and should England declare now, their is still enough time left in this match for them to chase the runs down, the chances of that happening are very, very, very unlikely though – to say the least.

In a way I understand England carrying on batting, as they are slowly grinding the Aussies down and breaking their resolve. At the same time though England already have more than enough runs to win, all they are doing now is giving Australia less time to bat out for the draw. I think Alastair Cook will look very stupid if Australia manage to salvage this, especially if they are 9 down at the close.

There is still possibly some cricket trading options available on Betfair, expect the draw price to shorten the longer England bat, and obviously England’s price will also drift. Trading the England price is very painstakingly slow though. Their is hundreds of thousands of pounds currently queuing up there, it took me about 5 hours to get a back and a lay matched yesterday.

Also, if Australia manage to build any partnerships there could be some trading to be done on the draw price. And then there is the 2nd innings total runs market. With the Test match already gone for Australia, will they bat with freedom and play shots? Or will they crumble again?

Ashes Betting – 2nd Test, Day 2

This games seems more like a proper Test match, compared with the 1st couple of days at Trent Bridge. One theme that seems to be carrying on from Trent Bridge though is the contrast in batting, with another brilliant under pressure century from Ian Bell, alongside the constant chucking away of wickets.

Okay, Aussie fans may well rightly suggest that some of the wickets were down to Michael Clarke’s captaincy, and in a way they were. For Clarke’s plans to wok though, someone has generally got to fall into the trap in a naive way! And Clarke certainly didn’t ‘plan’ Jonny Bairstow’s wicket in that manner.

Not taking anything away from Clarke though, he made some bold moves yesterday and they paid off. I didn’t think dropping Mitchell Starc was right, and I was proved wrong as that paid off with Ryan Harris taking two early wickets. So all in all, it was a god day for Clarke and the Australians.

It all still hasn’t made any real difference in the cricket betting though, as – like this time yesterday – the bookmakers still have Australia as the outsiders to win this Test match.

The latest Ashes Test match betting has England at Evens, the draw at 11/4 and Australia at 9/4.

England started the Test match as Even money favourites, so even though they look well below par with their 1st innings score (so far), the punters still see them as a reasonably good bet.

I did a bit of trading on Betfair yesterday, and using a £100.00 float I have managed to get myself £18 green on both England and Australia, and £22 green on the draw.

I made this from backing and then laying the draw in the afternoon when Bairstow and Bell were batting, and then from backing Australia late on in the day when they drifted out too around 7 to 8/1, and then laying them after they took late wickets.

I expected a positive result at Trent Bridge, but I’m not as certain here. With a gun to my head, I would say there will be a result, mainly due to the poor batting of both sides.

Not easy to call which way the market will swing today. So will be a watching brief to start with, and maybe a look at the 1st innings runs market (on Betfair) for a bit of interest.

Ashes Betting – 2nd Test Betting Preview

Another potty couple days in the world of Australian cricket, and more adverse publicity for the Aussies in the build up to the 2nd Test match starting at Lord’s on Thursday 18th July.

The Mickey Arthur furore doesn’t seem to have had any major impact on the cricket betting odds with England favourites at 10/11 to win the 2nd Test. The fact that Mickey Arthur has stirred the pot by claiming that Michael Clarke doesn’t particularly get on with Shame Watson doesn’t seem to have sent Australia backers running to the hills in fear. 
And why would it? It was hardly a well kept secret that Watson and Clarke aren’t great buddies. So why would it cause panic in the betting ranks now? 
In Ashes Test Match Betting, the bookmakers price it up as England Evens, The Draw 11/5, Australia 3/1.
Australia have a colourful recent history of players not getting on well, or players and coaches not seeing eye to eye over issues. It hasn’t done them any real harm in the past, although the players involved were the likes of Shane Warne, and he was in a slightly different class to the current bunch.
Never the less, it would be very naive to think that the relationships within the camp haven’t had an effect on the team at times, a look at the Aussies recent tour of India would suggest it has. 
It’s the extent of the personality clash that is the main thing. Is it manageable? Or is it having an adverse effect on the team? The 1st Test suggested it isn’t having a negative effect, but that was before Mickey Arthur’s unhelpful contribution. 
While I don’t doubt that Arthur may have over cooked his story of the level of disharmony to further his own needs, the words he is alleging Clarke has used to describe Watson clearly aren’t helpful.
Another thought that I have had is the relationship between Clarke and Lehmann. If Clarke’s main source of disagreement with Watson is over where he bats, what will Clarke make of Lehmann’s decision to put Watson back up to open? It’s surely a slap in the face for Michael Clarke?
Anyway, enough of that, onto cricket trading. Four of the last five Test matches at Lord’s have had a positive result. The last draw was England V Sri Lanka back in 2011. 
Last year’s Test match with South Africa was played in similar conditions to this one, and I believe it probably would have been a draw had England not had to go for bust to try and salvage something from the series.

The earlier Test this year against New Zealand was played in very differing conditions. I’d imagine that most of the Test matches played at Lord’s over the last few years haven’t been played in as batsman friendly conditions as we are currently experiencing in England. 

My conclusion of that is that I expect the draw price to trade low in this Test match, but I’m not convinced that the match won’t be a draw. Then again, after the 1st innings batting of both sides in the 1st Test, surely anything is possible.
I expect the draw to come in from it’s current 3.50 over the next couple of days. But I couldn’t back it (for a trade) with any certainty, as it’s not impossible to envisage either side being all out on Day 1. If players bat properly, then I expect a slower paced Test match with the draw shortening, but as we seen at Trent Bridge, nothing is certain with these two teams.