Betfair Cricket Trading – Some Confidence Restored

Going into the 4th Test my confidence was a bit shot. I had made a mess of the 3rd Test by throwing away a winning position on the evening of the 3rd day, by staying in my trade and hoping for a bigger win. As has happened in the past, this can influence decisions when I next have a bet.

To start with, I do believe my performance in the 3rd Test did initially influence my decisions in the 4th Test. In the end though, I managed to put it all out of my head. I actually think I eventually did a good job of isolating my cricket trading down to just this (4th) Test match.

On Monday morning, I was happy to sit on my 5% green. That was until seeing Australia trading down at sub 1.25 in their run chase.

In isolation I thought that was worth a lay. I wasn’t convinced the lay bet would come off, but I was happy that it was a value lay. This is where I managed to put what happened in the 3rd Test out of my head and place my lay, accepting it could lose, but understanding that it represented good value. And if it did lose, I shouldn’t be too hard on myself.

If the truth be told, I didn’t expect Australia to lose the match in a session, and I had traded out long before their batting collapse. I suspected England might win, but it was never my intention to let my lay bet run, just in case they didn’t.

I placed it with a view to Australia losing two to three quick wickets and being at around 200/4 or 5, I then thought I could either trade out for at worst scratch, or a nice win. As it turned out, I got out for a nice win on the loss of Michael Clarke’s wicket.

I then left about 5% (of my betting bank) green on Australia, 30% on England, and I had a very large percentage green on the draw (which wasn’t worth laying at the high odds).

Despite the win, I still have a bit of a long term doubt in my mind though. Was my lay of Australia too risky? I know the result suggests not, but for a period of time after lunch it actually looked like my faith in England was misplaced. And realistically, the bet should have lost.

Was it a trade I placed, or was it a bet? And if it was a bet, was it a value one?

Should I have just sat on the 5% profit I had made trading the previous night?

These are decisions I need to make. Do I look for riskier big wins, or do I play safe and look to take around 5% a Test match, with minimum risk to my betting bank?

I don’t think I can continue to do a mixture of the two, I believe I need to decide one way or the other. I need to formulate a betting/trading process in my mind, and work on it until I am happy it is as good as I can get it (or maybe even perfect it).

I can’t continue losing big like I did on the 3rd Test, and wiping out 2 to 3 Test matches worth of winnings.

Ashes Betting – 2nd Test, Day 4

A fairly slow day on Saturday seen England bat Australia out of the 2nd Test and put themselves in a position to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the series. The damage was done on Friday, and from a cricket betting perspective the Test match was over thanks to Australia’s abject batting performance.

For anyone still brave enough to have a bet on this Test match, the online bookmakers are pricing it up as follows….England are 1/16 – The Draw 8/1 – Australia 33/1.

The big question today really is when will England declare? Australia are already 566 runs behind, and should England declare now, their is still enough time left in this match for them to chase the runs down, the chances of that happening are very, very, very unlikely though – to say the least.

In a way I understand England carrying on batting, as they are slowly grinding the Aussies down and breaking their resolve. At the same time though England already have more than enough runs to win, all they are doing now is giving Australia less time to bat out for the draw. I think Alastair Cook will look very stupid if Australia manage to salvage this, especially if they are 9 down at the close.

There is still possibly some cricket trading options available on Betfair, expect the draw price to shorten the longer England bat, and obviously England’s price will also drift. Trading the England price is very painstakingly slow though. Their is hundreds of thousands of pounds currently queuing up there, it took me about 5 hours to get a back and a lay matched yesterday.

Also, if Australia manage to build any partnerships there could be some trading to be done on the draw price. And then there is the 2nd innings total runs market. With the Test match already gone for Australia, will they bat with freedom and play shots? Or will they crumble again?

Ashes Betting – 2nd Test Betting Preview

Another potty couple days in the world of Australian cricket, and more adverse publicity for the Aussies in the build up to the 2nd Test match starting at Lord’s on Thursday 18th July.

The Mickey Arthur furore doesn’t seem to have had any major impact on the cricket betting odds with England favourites at 10/11 to win the 2nd Test. The fact that Mickey Arthur has stirred the pot by claiming that Michael Clarke doesn’t particularly get on with Shame Watson doesn’t seem to have sent Australia backers running to the hills in fear. 
And why would it? It was hardly a well kept secret that Watson and Clarke aren’t great buddies. So why would it cause panic in the betting ranks now? 
In Ashes Test Match Betting, the bookmakers price it up as England Evens, The Draw 11/5, Australia 3/1.
Australia have a colourful recent history of players not getting on well, or players and coaches not seeing eye to eye over issues. It hasn’t done them any real harm in the past, although the players involved were the likes of Shane Warne, and he was in a slightly different class to the current bunch.
Never the less, it would be very naive to think that the relationships within the camp haven’t had an effect on the team at times, a look at the Aussies recent tour of India would suggest it has. 
It’s the extent of the personality clash that is the main thing. Is it manageable? Or is it having an adverse effect on the team? The 1st Test suggested it isn’t having a negative effect, but that was before Mickey Arthur’s unhelpful contribution. 
While I don’t doubt that Arthur may have over cooked his story of the level of disharmony to further his own needs, the words he is alleging Clarke has used to describe Watson clearly aren’t helpful.
Another thought that I have had is the relationship between Clarke and Lehmann. If Clarke’s main source of disagreement with Watson is over where he bats, what will Clarke make of Lehmann’s decision to put Watson back up to open? It’s surely a slap in the face for Michael Clarke?
Anyway, enough of that, onto cricket trading. Four of the last five Test matches at Lord’s have had a positive result. The last draw was England V Sri Lanka back in 2011. 
Last year’s Test match with South Africa was played in similar conditions to this one, and I believe it probably would have been a draw had England not had to go for bust to try and salvage something from the series.

The earlier Test this year against New Zealand was played in very differing conditions. I’d imagine that most of the Test matches played at Lord’s over the last few years haven’t been played in as batsman friendly conditions as we are currently experiencing in England. 

My conclusion of that is that I expect the draw price to trade low in this Test match, but I’m not convinced that the match won’t be a draw. Then again, after the 1st innings batting of both sides in the 1st Test, surely anything is possible.
I expect the draw to come in from it’s current 3.50 over the next couple of days. But I couldn’t back it (for a trade) with any certainty, as it’s not impossible to envisage either side being all out on Day 1. If players bat properly, then I expect a slower paced Test match with the draw shortening, but as we seen at Trent Bridge, nothing is certain with these two teams.

Celkon Mobile Cup Betting – The Final

After trading at odds on favourites earlier in the competition, West Indies don’t even make the final. This tournament has basically now turned on it’s head as India make a late charge and look to add another trophy to their ODI repertoire.

India are now the online bookmakers favourites, the betting odds for the final are India 8/15 – Sri Lanka 6/4.

The Indian comeback is quite remarkable really, a few days back they looked dead and buried in this competition. There is even a possibility that their inspirational leader MS Dhoni could be back today, according to reports he is touch and go to play.

Personally I think it may be in India’s interests to see how they play a big match without him, to see if they are over dependant on him or not – but that’s just my view.

The weather shows there is a possible shower in the air today, although conditions are expected to be better today after the recent rain interruptions (bare in mind all three of the matches so far in Port-of-Spain have been won by the team batting first and under the Duckworth/Lewis method).

Cricket Betting Carnage On Betfair

Trading cricket on Betfair can be a volatile business, and yesterday’s on-off game between India and Pakistan seen absolute carnage on the betting exchanges. The market in question was the completed match market.

20 overs a side constitutes a match in this Champions Trophy, that is the minimum amount of overs both sides have to face to achieve an official result (unless a team gets bowled out in less than 20 overs).

The completed match market is where you can bet on whether there is an official result. ie, the recent washed out Champions Trophy game between Australia and New Zealand was a ‘no result,’ so in the completed match market, it would have been ‘No.’

Yesterday’s game between India and Pakistan had an official result (India won), so in the completed match market, it was ‘Yes.’

At various stages yesterday, the match looked certain to be a wash out, and at various stages it looked certain to be completed. At times the completed match market on Betfair looked to be all over the place, punters seem to get spooked very easily and panic seems to always ensue.

I can’t work out whether people are betting on what they think will happen, or how they think the market will behave, or just in blind panic.

To clarify that last statement in a bit more detail…. sometimes I might not know whether a match will be completed or not, so I won’t have a bet on it.

If the players are off the pitch for rain, the sight of a bit of blue sky, or covers coming off the wicket, will usually trigger a betting surge in the market, meaning I can back ‘Yes’ in the completed match market, and then trade out (for hopefully a nice profit) when the price plunges. And vice versa if the players are on the field and it starts to rain.

This is more what I would call cricket trading, as opposed to cricket betting.

Anyway, back to yesterday. And the screenshot below shows just how much money was traded on the ‘completed match market’ outcome.

At one stage yesterday when Pakistan were batting, during the first rain break, the ‘No’ outcome was trading down at odds on, in the belief that a large storm was heading to Birmingham later in the day.

Then after that threat had passed over with limited damage and while India batted early in their (reduced) innings, ‘Yes’ was trading at down below 1.10. Then while they were off for the final rain interruption ‘No’ was trading at sub 1.05 as shown above.

I then watched as the ‘No’ price went from under 1.05 to around 4/1 in a matter of about two minutes as the covers were removed. This wasn’t a massive surprise, the surprise was that the ‘No’ outcome had got backed down to as low as it did. It was absolute carnage.

This just goes to show the opportunities that are there to profit from trading cricket on Betfair. It can be costly if you get it wrong, but can be brilliant when you get it right. I think the trick is too lay at low prices, so if you do find yourself on the wrong side of the outcome your losses are minimal.

The screenshot above is testament to this, you would had been far better off laying 1.05. If you lay £100.00 at that price you lose a fiver. So what!

This is where we get the value. A bet at Even money in these events is pretty much a toss of a coin gamble (unless you trade straight out for a small profit), more akin to a Casino bet. Whereas a lay at odds like sub 1.10, is a calculated risk.

It’s not always the case, and every event should be judged on it’s own merits, but at least you shouldn’t go bankrupt laying at those prices….. like some people probably did yesterday.

England V New Zealand 2nd Test Betting Review

As I said in yesterday’s post (pre start of Day 5), this was one hell of a topsy turvy affair from a cricket betting perspective. From the close of play on Monday night, up until the last rights on Tuesday afternoon, I don’t know how many times England traded down at sub 1.5, and then above Even money on Betfair.

Trading cricket on Betfair can be very dangerous when the price is jumping up and down in that manner. In betting terms, it was more like the end of a closely fought ODI or T20 match, where the match favourite switches on almost every ball.

I did stupidly get involved during the kamikazi period of trading after play had finished on Day 4. I was already in a strong position at the time (about £50 green on the draw and the same on England), but I just couldn’t resist the urge to try and make a few extra quid trading a couple of ticks here and there as the price settled down at the end of play.

It worked the first time and I managed to make a couple of quid (England were trading at around 1.92-1.96 at the time), the second time I wasn’t so lucky as the England price crashed (to around 1.60) with only my lay matched.

I wasn’t overly concerned as I knew it was supposed to start raining before play started on Day 5, so I knew/hoped the price would come back – which it did very early on Tuesday morning.

I managed to get out of that hole, so to prove to myself that I will probably never learn, I did a couple more small price movement trades before the scheduled start on Day 5, and then I eventually left it.

I initially did the bulk of my trading between the end of play on Day 3, and the start of play on Day 4. I hadn’t really got involved much before then, except for a small loss, pre toss.

At the end of Day 3, England were trading at 1.30. I thought was a ridiculous price, given the weather forecast for Day 5 was showing a possible wash out.

At that moment in time, it looked like England would have to wrap the match up on Day 4, as there looked little chance of any/much play on Day 5. So that meant they would have had to bat New Zealand out of the match, declare, and then bowl the Kiwi’s out in a day – or the weather forecast for Day 5, would have to drastically improve.

With this in mind, I thought 1.30 on England was just way to short, and I just had to lay England. I couldn’t believe this price, the market didn’t seem to be factoring the Day 5 weather into the odds at all.

Either I was going mad, or the market knew something I didn’t!

Anyway, it appeared that I wasn’t going mad as the penny finally dropped, and by the time play started on Day 4, England had drifted out to 1.65 on Betfair.

I had traded out long before this (mainly due to the erratic way the market seemed to be behaving), but I was kicking myself that I didn’t follow my instincts and stay in longer to win more. Greed has done for me many times in the past, but I think this wouldn’t have been greed, it would have been a calculated risk – that turned out to be correct. I think I was definitely too over cautious here.

What makes it all the more worse, is the silly trades I then went and got involved in between the end of play on Day 4, and the start of Day 5 – where I clearly wasn’t in any way cautious, or responsible.

Anyway it all worked out well in the end and I ended up with a nice £45.81 win. I do think that I could have traded the Test match a lot better than I did at times though.

Below is a screenshot of my how my cricket trading on Betfair finished up, it was taken just before England wrapped up their victory.

Trading Cricket on Betfair

Trading Test cricket on Betfair (or on a betting exchange) can be very profitable just from trading price movements.

For example, if you have a £100.00 betting bank, it is fairly easy to win £3.00 to £5.00 a Test match as a bare minimum, and this is just by trading one to two tick price movements at a time.

Ok, so this method is a slow burner, in fact it can be a very slow burner depending on how cautious you wish to be, but if done correctly with plenty of patience and discipline it is a relatively risk free method of making money from betting on cricket.

To improve your chances of being successful using this method I believe it’s best if you work on a percentage ratio, as opposed to cash figures.

Working on a percentage basis is far better for reasons of discipline and is far better at preventing greed from taking over.

Using the £100.00 betting bank example I referred too above, it could work like this….. Instead of looking at it as £2.00 to £5.00 profit, look at it as 2% to 5% profit.

Who is going to be satisfied with winning £2.00 to £5.00 on a Test match? Not many people. That’s why working on percentages is far more practical when using this method.

Look at the long term objective. 2% to 5% of £1000.00 is a good bit more money, while 2% to 5% of £10,000.00 is a lot of money.

If you feel confident enough, you can start with £100.00 or maybe £500.00. If not, or if you merely want to experiment and see if you have the required discipline (which I have struggled with) then start with £10.00 or £20.00, and just see how you get on.

As I mentioned at the start of this blog post, you can win 2% to 5% a match just trading one tick price movements, this method can be used trading price movements before a ball is even bowled (they do happen, believe me!).

Whether it be pre match, or during a match, I would put a few quid in a betting exchange account (I use Betfair) and just have a play about with it and see how you get on.

Personally, I prefer using this cricket trading method for Test match betting. Why? Because Test cricket is more slow and serene, meaning large price swings are far less frequent, especially in the early stages of a Test match. Whereas the shorter forms of the game are more volatile and far more susceptible to big price swings.

So if you want to take it more slowly, or are new to this cricket trading method, I would recommend starting out on Test cricket.

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