Ashes Betting, 5th Test Betting Preview

Can England create history and make it 4-0? This seems to be the main question now. Will England be true to their word and look to create history? Or will a leggy England turn up in body, but not in mind and get beat?

And what about the Aussies, can they really recover from the crushing blow of Durham? Or are they now totally shot and just looking to get the tour over with, and back home?

The odds seem to suggest most think England will win, but without the conviction of earlier in the series. Ashes betting odds sees England at 11/10, The Draw at 9/4, and Australia are 11/4.

England have been odds on at the start of most (maybe all) Test matches so far this series. So a drift to odds against suggests cricket betting punters aren’t totally convinced by them.

I see it going one of two ways with England, as the shackles are basically off as there is now no pressure of a drawn series, England may well go out and play with freedom and flare, and destroy Australia. Or they may just turn up, feeling tired and lethargic, go through the motions, and get beat.

As for the Aussies, well I don’t know where to start. I don’t really want to hammer them on here and then have to watch them beat a complacent England going through the motions, but what on earth are they doing with their team selection?

Bringing in James Faulkner for Usman Khawaja, what’s that all about. I get having a look at James Faulkner, but at the expense of a batsman?

Their batting is clearly their weak point, so how do they strengthen it by dropping a batsmen for another all rounder (to go with ShaneWatson and Steve Smith), and moving Brad Haddin up to number 6? What’s that all about, and what does it do for the confidence of Usman Khawaja and Phil Hughes?

If the two are to be jettisoned permanently after this series, and Australia have already decided this, and have other batsmen (not on this tour) in mind, then fair enough. If not, then it is more chopping and changing, and more undermining players, as what does Phil Hughes have to do to get a recall to this batting unit?

Mitchell Starc is back again, he must feel like he’s been doing the hokey-cokey on this tour. And speaking of the hokey-cokey, Shane Watson has got another move in the batting line up, with a promotion (yes, a promotion) up to number 3….. ahead of Khawaja and Hughes.

I could be proven wrong, but I’m afraid as it stands, I really just don’t get it.

The pitch is supposed to be another dry dust bowl expected to turn later in the Test match. Although there is a rumour that it is supposed to be quicker and bouncier than usual. Looking at the pitches Andy Flower has had prepared so far this series, a quick and bouncy pitch seems a bit unlikely to me.

Even allowing for a change to the pitch with the series over and the expected return of Chris Tremlett, will the groundsman have had time to readjust from what he has already been preparing?

The last 5 matches at The Oval have seen results. Some of them have been down to teams needing to force a result, and some have been because teams are already on the plane home. This makes getting a feel for how the wicket behaves more difficult, because conventional cricket methods (when to declare, etc) can go out the window.

Onto the weather, and the forecast looks decent, although there is potential thunder storms predicted, but overall I don’t expect much play to be lost.

From my betting perspective, I suspect a flat batting pitch, so I would want to see how it behaves before I have a bet. There seems to be a bit too much uncertainty about the pitch as things stand. I also want to see who wins the toss before getting  involved, as it could be a problem for whoever has to bat fourth on this wicket.

Ashes Betting, 4th Test, Day 3 Betting

I’m on the verge of accepting momentum has turned, but not quite yet. Definitely Australia’s Test match so far, and this is reflected in the betting, as the online bookmakers now have Australia as odds on favourite.

The current cricket betting odds are Australia 4/5 – England  5/2 – The Draw 3/1.

I think the odds represent a fair reflection of where the match is. It isn’t impossible for England to get back in this Test match. If they could bowl Australia out with a 50 run lead and then bat well, they could regain parity.

Even if England could bowl Australia out cheaply this morning (the more likely of the two scenarios), they haven’t shown the form with the bat to suggest they could bat Australia out of the Test match though.

Rain is in the air later for Day 4 and 5, so that keeps the Draw in with a slight chance.

I was very happy for Chris Rogers getting his century. It was a good innings, possibly a match winning one. He threatened it at Old Trafford, and I was pleased to see him complete the job this time.

Rogers unfortunately seems to be one of these ‘unfashionable’ cricketers who will never be accepted by some, and will always have that stopgap feel about his career. Not my view, just the vibe I pick up. So it’s good to see him get some glory and positive headlines for a change.

I seen Mike Selvey tweet earlier that it was the best century of the series so far, not sure I’d totally agree that it was the outright best, but it’s certainly up there with the earlier Bell centuries as one of the best of the series.  

I’m in a bit of a hole with my Betfair cricket trading. I was laying Australia yesterday, and things were going well up until the Rogers, Watson partnership. I suppose I can’t keep expecting Watson to get himself out in the 20’s, so serves me right.

It’s not a massive all round loss, about 13% of betting bank at the moment. Although I’m not convinced Australia will win, I think I will play safe and square my loss up this morning, and just take my medicine. My main concern is that I just can’t rely on England’s batting.

Ashes Betting, 4th Test Betting Preview

If all the reports are to be believed, Australia are in the driving seat, they have all the momentum, and now should roll England over quite easily in the 4th and 5th Test matches to draw the series 2-2.

And that’s just for starters, after that, they are going to destroy England in the return series down under.

Don’t quite see it that way myself. England don’t have to be cautious any more, I think the pressure is off them now, and I expect them to be more like the England side that played at Lord’s.

I agree that England were poor and outplayed at Old Trafford, and Australia would have easily won, had it not been for the rain. They certainly need to buck their ideas up ahead of the 4th Test, that’s for sure. They seem to have slipped into a ‘let’s just do enough mentality,’ and that could cost them in the long run.

That doesn’t mean this will be the pattern that the rest of the series will follow though, despite what the media have been telling us all week.

Cricket betting punters seem to disagree with much of the media also. If Australia are so nailed on why are the cricket betting odds as follows???

England are 10/11 – The Draw is 13/5 – Australia are 11/4

We could be wrong though, I certainly was with my betfair cricket trading selections last weekend!!! There was a point on Saturday when I could have traded out for a nice profit, but I decided to stay in my trade, and it ended up costing me all of my series winnings so far.

When Matt Prior and Stuart Broad were at the crease, I could have took a reasonable size win there and then. Instead I took the position that Australia might wrap up the tail, and I could win more. I don’t think that was the worst trading tactic to employ, my mistake was not getting out for scratch after it didn’t happen.

Even after that I could have got out for a single figure loss, but I put too much emphasise on believing Michael Clarke would make a generous declaration, and in my delusion, took my eye off the weather. My mistake, and I rightly got punished for it.

Onto today’s Test match, and like Old Trafford, Durham’s Riverside Stadium doesn’t have much recent Test match history to go on (this is only the grounds fifth Test match).

In the past, I’ve regarded Durham as a seaming wicket, which I believe is more down to the groundsman preparing pitches to suit Durham’s strength – for Steve Harmison and Graham Onions, etc. If Andy Flower has had any of his usual negative influence on the type of pitch we will get, that is the last sort of wicket we will see this week. It will be like every other pitch we have had so far this series.

Will England shake the bowling up? And will Australia play Ryan Harris in back to back Test matches? Those are the two main questions. England like Bresnan and Braod for their batting, even though they are picked to bowl.

The Aussies will probably tinker with the batting line up and bruise Shane Watson’s ego. I don’t see him getting dropped, as he is an invaluable 5th bowler. Australia’s Paul Collingwood if you like 🙂

Ashes Betting – Looks Like The Weather Wins!

Not much to be had here from a cricket betting perspective, as the match is over barring a miracle. For anyone still fancying a bet, the odds are, The Draw 1/100 – Australia 16/1 – England 66/1

I’ve made a bit of a mess with my trading of this Test match. I started off with a lay of Australia, and had I left things as they were, I would be in a nice position now.

On Saturday I finished off by stating be very careful if trading the draw. Apparently incapable of heeding my own advice, this is exactly what I didn’t do, and I now find myself looking down the barrel of a nice big loss. I wasn’t quick enough at cashing out last night when the Umpires were conferring over the light, and the rest is history.

It was totally my own fault, as I knew it was time to get out, but didn’t move quickly enough to get the desired price. And then I dug in hoping the weather might come good today, which it doesn’t look like doing, so 100% my own stupid fault.

Moving onto the Umpires, and I’ve tried to steer clear of criticising them in this series so far, but my patience has finally run out with the ridiculous decision to take players off for bad light yesterday. Yes, the conditions weren’t great, but international cricket has been played in far worse conditions than that.

The Umpires will be able to hide behind the law book when attempting to justify this decision, but it is yet another example of cricket shooting itself in the foot. And it wasn’t the only bad call from the Umpires yesterday, as they either didn’t notice (hard to believe), or chose to do nothing about England’s continued time wasting tactics – another thing that doesn’t help the image of cricket.

Onto a more positive note, and I’ve been impressed with David Warner’s attitude with all the stick and mickey taking he has had to endure in this Test match. Yes, he has brought it all on himself, but he has laughed it off and handled it all in quite an impressive manner.

From what we have been led to believe by the media, Warner is an explosive temperamental character who is quite likely to throw his toys out of his pram in the face of such banter, but the evidence I can see suggests this not to be the case.

Ashes Betting – 3rd Test Day 3, Betting Preview

If the bookmakers odds are too believed, it looks like we are betting on either an Australian win, or some good old fashioned English weather, in this Test match.

The odds are currently, The Draw 4/7 – Australia 6/4 – England 16/1

Any remote thoughts of an England win in this Test match disappeared not long after lunch on Friday, and it now looks like England have slipped into survival mode.

Joe Root’s painful innings and the decision to send in Bresnan as (some sort of) night watchman with around 30 minutes of play left certainly gave off a massive negative vibe from the England dressing room.

Not that I’m suggesting they should be going all out for a win from this position, as I’m not, that would be stupid. But I do feel a little more positive intent wouldn’t go amiss (watch me slagging England off tomorrow now for throwing their wickets away).

Not much value to be had from trading the outright winner result on Betfair. I’ve tried to nick a couple of quid here and there to get rid of my current single figure losing position, but have had little success there.

It seems like it is going to be a case of the draw shortening every time a partnership develops, and then it will sharply jump at the fall of a wicket, only to shorten again almost immediately afterwards. Could be some money to be made there I suppose, but it can be a risky strategy.

If you lay first and England drop anchor and bat out a session without losing a wicket, the draw price will vanish. If you back first, and England lose a couple of quick wickets, you will playing a waiting game for the price to come back in again.

The weather forecast for Sunday and Monday doesn’t look great either, but the mid range one didn’t look too clever for Friday or today either.

All in all, be very careful if trading the draw.

Ashes Betting – 3rd Test Day 2, Betting Preview

Could any chance of the whitewash have gone yesterday? Possibly, as England have some work to do to get back in this Test.

It was always going to happen, England couldn’t expect to dominate every day of every Ashes Test match, and Day 1 proved this to be the case. It was also proof that nothing can be taken for granted in this great game, as Australia showed England that they can play.

Australia are now in the stronger position, but not necessarily in the box seat. This is reflected in the odds, as the Draw is now favourite with the online bookmakers.

The Draw is 8/13 – Australia are 2/1 – England are 6/1

This is the sort of match situation made for David Warner. He is not going to come out and play a conventional Test match innings, as he isn’t that sort of batsman. Warner is stroke player, this match situation is perfect for him, there is no scoreboard pressure on him, and he will be able to express himself and play with freedom. At the same time, conditions are going to be different on Day 2, and the ball could maybe talk today.

Yesterday was probably the first time in three Tests that someone has played properly in the 1st inninngs. What happened yesterday, should have happened in the first two Test matches. Win the toss, bat properly in reasonable to decent batting conditions, and the draw odds shorten.

With the fragility of both teams’ batting, it would have been hard to have the confidence to put your money on the draw with a view to trading out after the expected draw price crash. If you had done that in all three Test matches, you would be 1 from 3 at the moment.

In all honesty I haven’t a clue how to call this one now. Australia should press on from here, but from what we have seen so far in this series, they are just as likely to be all out by lunch. Warner could come in and smack a ton in 75 balls, it could rain, take your pick!

I placed a lay of Australia on Betfair pre lunch yesterday, and although their price continually shortened from that moment, due to some green I had from pre Test match trades, I could have traded out for a small profit right until the start of the last hour yesterday evening.

In the end I traded out last night for a single figure loss, just to play safe, as I can’t see where we are going here. If the draw continues to shorten, and the weather forecast looks okay, I may lay the draw later on in the match. For the time being though, I plan to sit back and wait and watch now, and see if an opportunity arises.

Ashes Betting – 3rd Test Betting Preview

Even the possibility of not having Kevin Pietersen in the side didn’t really scare the punters off from backing England. The days of England needing to rely on Kevin Pietersen’s batting seem to be long gone.

The hosts looking to go into a 3-0 lead and to wrap up the series, are again – obviously – heavy favourites. Online bookmakers currently have England at 8/11 – The Draw at 11/4 – Australia are 7/2.

If Pietersen is fit, I imagine England will be unchanged, as I can’t see them playing two spinners. I’m not sure if bringing Monty Panesar into the squad was just to re-familiarise him with his team mates, or to try and further spook the Aussies about their lack of spinning options.

Australia on the other hand will almost certainly bring David Warner back into the batting line up, and will relieve Ashton Agar of his duties, with Nathan Lyon coming back in as the spinner. They will probably replace the injured James Pattinson with Mitchell Starc.

There has not been too many Test matches at Old Trafford in recent years, and the pitch has been turned around, so there is no real international form to judge the wicket on. In domestic cricket, Old Trafford is regarded as a turning pitch.

If you have been trading cricket on Betfair, you will already have noticed plenty of price fluctuations, particularly on the draw.

The draw – currently trading at around 3.80 to 3.90 – has already traded as high as 4, and down below 2.7, mainly due to the longer range weather forecast before last weekend, as opposed to Kevin Pietersen’s calf injury (in my opinion).

The more I bet on cricket, the more I see that learning to read a weather forecast is nearly as important as learning to read a cricket match. Money can be made or lost, just trading price movements based on weather forecasts.

With this Test match being played in the (probably falsely) notorious rain hotspot that is Manchester, the weather needs to be watched closely – as it always does. Despite all the reports that it is going to be fine, Friday, Saturday and Monday look dodgy to me.

This will probably lead to the draw odds shortening, but as is always the case in England, it can lead to dark clouds, swing, and shortened Test matches…. so beware!

Bad Decision Making And Small Margins Costing Australia

Bad decision making and small margins can have a big impact at this level of Test cricket. It already has to be said that after just two Ashes Test matches, the Aussies have already made enough bad decisions to cover around a years cricket.

Small margins can be pivotal too. When Joe Root edged chest high through the gap between wicket keeper and first slip in his 2nd innings at Lord’s……and no one moved, it could have been a decisive moment in this Test series, and maybe to some extent, in Root’s career as a whole.

Had that catch been taken Root would have had scores of 30, 5, 6 and 8, since his promotion to opener. Instead he now has scores of 30, 5, 6 and 180. All of a sudden what was beginning to look like a poor decision (in the short term) by England, now looks like a brilliant one, and will no doubt have given Joe Root no end of self confidence for the remainder of the Ashes….. and beyond.  

In fairness to the Aussies, they have also been the victims of some poor umpiring decisions….. some, they could have done something about, had they used their reviews better, while some were just totally beyond their control (I’m not going to dwell on umpiring decisions, England could argue some big ones went against them in the 1st Test, so I’m not getting into that debate).

The very bad decisions from Australia have been far more influential than the umpiring ones so far in the first two Test matches. Shane Watson’s ridiculous, selfish review in the 1st innings at Lord’s was staggering, it smacked of arrogance and a lack of team ethic to me (just how it looked, he may be a great team man). Did that also lead to Chris Rodgers not reviewing his out decision soon after? But then even given Watson’s wasting of a review, should Rodgers have had the strength of character to review anyway?

I’m fairly sure that Rodgers would have reviewed had Australia still had two remaining. There would have been plenty of talk about using them properly after the 1st Test, so that must have played a part in Rodgers taking the decision he did.

The ‘inspired’ decisions Australia have been making lately haven’t been limited to just the players. When Darren Lehmann got the job, all we heard about was ‘how great a decision’ it was. Maybe in the long run it will be, but it certainly doesn’t appear to be paying dividends at the moment.

Who was the brains behind promoting Watson back up to opener? A technically flawed opener. This was one of the first statements we heard from Lehmann, and it was apparently against Michael Clarke’s (better) judgement.

Who was the brains behind moving Michael Clarke so far down the order? So that when he comes in to bat he is already under immense pressure, given his side have generally already got off to a bad start.

They’re not greatly inspired decisions at the moment, although that’s not to say things won’t change in the future. Lehmann and Australia only need to look at the change in India’s performances – now that Duncan Fletcher has had the chance to pick the players he wants – to see how things can turn around.

I imagine when Cricket Australia got rid of Mickey Arthur and put Lehmann in charge, they did it with a long term view, so there is no need to panic yet. This isn’t even Lehmann’s side, and he wouldn’t have had any input into the naming of the squad.

Australia now seem down and out, the cricket betting certainly seems to suggest this. A 5-0 whitewash for England is now as short as 3/1. And given the decent English weather of late, is there ever going to be a better chance for England to complete a 5-0 hammering?

Having said that, this is England, and the weather can turn very quickly, so bear that in mind if you are looking at backing 5-0.

England are now 1/33 to win the Ashes outright. Despite this short price there are still plenty of Ashes betting opportunities available, as well as news on the latest betting site bonuses available to use to bet on the Ashes with, ie, free bets, or online bookmaker promotional offers, etc.

If you still fancy a miracle, Australia are 33/1, and a drawn series is 14/1.

Ashes Betting – 2nd Test, Day 4

A fairly slow day on Saturday seen England bat Australia out of the 2nd Test and put themselves in a position to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the series. The damage was done on Friday, and from a cricket betting perspective the Test match was over thanks to Australia’s abject batting performance.

For anyone still brave enough to have a bet on this Test match, the online bookmakers are pricing it up as follows….England are 1/16 – The Draw 8/1 – Australia 33/1.

The big question today really is when will England declare? Australia are already 566 runs behind, and should England declare now, their is still enough time left in this match for them to chase the runs down, the chances of that happening are very, very, very unlikely though – to say the least.

In a way I understand England carrying on batting, as they are slowly grinding the Aussies down and breaking their resolve. At the same time though England already have more than enough runs to win, all they are doing now is giving Australia less time to bat out for the draw. I think Alastair Cook will look very stupid if Australia manage to salvage this, especially if they are 9 down at the close.

There is still possibly some cricket trading options available on Betfair, expect the draw price to shorten the longer England bat, and obviously England’s price will also drift. Trading the England price is very painstakingly slow though. Their is hundreds of thousands of pounds currently queuing up there, it took me about 5 hours to get a back and a lay matched yesterday.

Also, if Australia manage to build any partnerships there could be some trading to be done on the draw price. And then there is the 2nd innings total runs market. With the Test match already gone for Australia, will they bat with freedom and play shots? Or will they crumble again?

Ashes Betting – 2nd Test, Day 2

This games seems more like a proper Test match, compared with the 1st couple of days at Trent Bridge. One theme that seems to be carrying on from Trent Bridge though is the contrast in batting, with another brilliant under pressure century from Ian Bell, alongside the constant chucking away of wickets.

Okay, Aussie fans may well rightly suggest that some of the wickets were down to Michael Clarke’s captaincy, and in a way they were. For Clarke’s plans to wok though, someone has generally got to fall into the trap in a naive way! And Clarke certainly didn’t ‘plan’ Jonny Bairstow’s wicket in that manner.

Not taking anything away from Clarke though, he made some bold moves yesterday and they paid off. I didn’t think dropping Mitchell Starc was right, and I was proved wrong as that paid off with Ryan Harris taking two early wickets. So all in all, it was a god day for Clarke and the Australians.

It all still hasn’t made any real difference in the cricket betting though, as – like this time yesterday – the bookmakers still have Australia as the outsiders to win this Test match.

The latest Ashes Test match betting has England at Evens, the draw at 11/4 and Australia at 9/4.

England started the Test match as Even money favourites, so even though they look well below par with their 1st innings score (so far), the punters still see them as a reasonably good bet.

I did a bit of trading on Betfair yesterday, and using a £100.00 float I have managed to get myself £18 green on both England and Australia, and £22 green on the draw.

I made this from backing and then laying the draw in the afternoon when Bairstow and Bell were batting, and then from backing Australia late on in the day when they drifted out too around 7 to 8/1, and then laying them after they took late wickets.

I expected a positive result at Trent Bridge, but I’m not as certain here. With a gun to my head, I would say there will be a result, mainly due to the poor batting of both sides.

Not easy to call which way the market will swing today. So will be a watching brief to start with, and maybe a look at the 1st innings runs market (on Betfair) for a bit of interest.