Another potty couple days in the world of Australian cricket, and more adverse publicity for the Aussies in the build up to the 2nd Test match starting at Lord’s on Thursday 18th July.
The Mickey Arthur furore doesn’t seem to have had any major impact on the cricket betting odds with England favourites at 10/11 to win the 2nd Test. The fact that Mickey Arthur has stirred the pot by claiming that Michael Clarke doesn’t particularly get on with Shame Watson doesn’t seem to have sent Australia backers running to the hills in fear.
And why would it? It was hardly a well kept secret that Watson and Clarke aren’t great buddies. So why would it cause panic in the betting ranks now?
Australia have a colourful recent history of players not getting on well, or players and coaches not seeing eye to eye over issues. It hasn’t done them any real harm in the past, although the players involved were the likes of Shane Warne, and he was in a slightly different class to the current bunch.
Never the less, it would be very naive to think that the relationships within the camp haven’t had an effect on the team at times, a look at the Aussies recent tour of India would suggest it has.
It’s the extent of the personality clash that is the main thing. Is it manageable? Or is it having an adverse effect on the team? The 1st Test suggested it isn’t having a negative effect, but that was before Mickey Arthur’s unhelpful contribution.
While I don’t doubt that Arthur may have over cooked his story of the level of disharmony to further his own needs, the words he is alleging Clarke has used to describe Watson clearly aren’t helpful.
Another thought that I have had is the relationship between Clarke and Lehmann. If Clarke’s main source of disagreement with Watson is over where he bats, what will Clarke make of Lehmann’s decision to put Watson back up to open? It’s surely a slap in the face for Michael Clarke?
Anyway, enough of that, onto cricket trading. Four of the last five Test matches at Lord’s have had a positive result. The last draw was England V Sri Lanka back in 2011.
Last year’s Test match with South Africa was played in similar conditions to this one, and I believe it probably would have been a draw had England not had to go for bust to try and salvage something from the series.
The earlier Test this year against New Zealand was played in very differing conditions. I’d imagine that most of the Test matches played at Lord’s over the last few years haven’t been played in as batsman friendly conditions as we are currently experiencing in England.
My conclusion of that is that I expect the draw price to trade low in this Test match, but I’m not convinced that the match won’t be a draw. Then again, after the 1st innings batting of both sides in the 1st Test, surely anything is possible.
I expect the draw to come in from it’s current 3.50 over the next couple of days. But I couldn’t back it (for a trade) with any certainty, as it’s not impossible to envisage either side being all out on Day 1. If players bat properly, then I expect a slower paced Test match with the draw shortening, but as we seen at Trent Bridge, nothing is certain with these two teams.
Put it another way and into a cricket betting perspective, I’ve backed many a 1/5 shot over the years, as some of them are buying money… but I’m not going near this one.
I expect England to win, but I’m not certain as this is just one of those Test matches where it seems better to just expect the unexpected. In the cold light of day, I don’t see Australia getting near 300, but matches like this can play with the mind, so I’m steering well clear.
I did try and do a bit of cricket trading on Betfair on the 2nd innings runs markets. At the start of Day 4, I placed a bet of England scoring under 375 runs at long odds, so lost there. I then did a bit of trading on the Australian 2nd innings runs market, I initially backed them to score under 200 runs, but I had to go out yesterday afternoon, so I placed a back of over 200 runs before I went out, ensuring a small profit either way (assuming it got matched, which it did). I would have left it and (hopefully) traded it for a better price had I been staying in.
I also placed a lay of Under 300 runs for Australia, there was a few pounds sitting there looking to back it at 1.6, so I obliged and accepted the bet. I will try and cover my loss for a small bet when the market picks up as Day 5 starts.
The innings runs’ markets have been fairly quiet so far, I know they generally are, but I was expecting a bit more activity in them during an Ashes series. Maybe they will pick up a bit in the 2nd Test, they can give cricket betting punters an alternative market to get involved in when the ‘outright winner test match betting market’ is not offering much value.
As I have stated on this website many times before, there is plenty more to betting on cricket than just picking Team A to beat Team B, and the ‘Completed Match’ market on Betfair is a prime example of one such alternative cricket betting option.
For those not familiar with it, this is a market available on limited overs matches where we can bet on whether or not there will be an ‘official result’ in the match. On Betfair it is simply a ‘completed match’ market, and you bet on either the ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ outcome.
If a limited overs match is rained off without a ball bowled, it is a ‘no result.’ If the minimum amount of overs aren’t bowled to constitute a match, it is also a ‘no result.’
In both these instances, ‘No Result,’ would be the winner on the completed match market on Betfair.
How Many Overs Constitute A Match In T20?
To get an official result in a weather effected T20 match, both sides would have to face a minimum of 5 Overs each. Anything less than 5 Overs each, would be called No Result.
If one side batted for all their allocated 20 Overs, and the other team only faced 5 Overs, there would be an official result. The match would be decided on the Duckworth/Lewis method.
How Many Overs Constitute A Match In A 50 Over Match?
In order to get an official result in a 50 Over match, both sides would need to face a minimum of 20 Overs.
It could also be one side bats all 50 Overs, and the other team only bats 20 Overs. This would still constitute a match. Likewise, the result would be based on Duckworth/Lewis calculations.
As long as both sides face a minimum of 20 Overs, a 50 Over ODI match will have an official result.
Completed Match Betting Can Be Madness
The completed match market is usually benign, as cricket is played in good weather. If the sun is out, the market is dead. As there is generally an official result.
Put some rain in the air though, and this market can turn into a panic stricken, betting frenzy. It can have millions traded on it.
It seems that punters take leave of their senses. Punters just bet on what they see in front of their eyes at that precise moment. For example, rain covers being brought on to the pitch, etc.
There appears to be little thought going in to what might happen in 10 minutes time. It could stop raining, resulting in the covers coming off again. Then the game is played to a conclusion with no further interruptions.
Yes, there are plenty of shrewd punters out there checking weather radars and thinking ahead. In general though, the masses seem to bet on instinct. The sight of rain seems to trigger that instinct and send the market into hysteria. It just goes crazy, with what appears to be bonkers bets placed on it.
In India’s ICC Champions Trophy final victory over England back in 2013, the ‘No’ outcome got backed in to below 1.10. People were betting on it at odds of 1/10, and lower, it was pure madness. If you stop and think about it for a minute, the ICC were always going to pull out all the stops to get a game of some sort on…. and yet people still backed ‘No’ into sub 1/10.
Make Sure You Know The Completed Match Betting Conditions
If you are betting on this market, be sure you are aware of the playing conditions. For example, the minimum number of overs needed to be bowled by both sides to constitute a match.
Or is there a reserve day? If there is, the match has more chance of being completed. As 2 days will need to be washed out.
They will vary depending on what format of cricket it is (50 Over, T20, 40 over domestics, etc), and can vary from series to series even in the same formats, so be careful there.
If you are a new starter thinking of having a go in this particular cricket betting market, wait for a rain effected match and just play around with a minimal amount of cash and watch the market to see how it behaves.
Favouritism in this market can flip over from one side to the other numerous times during a rainy day. Events like this gives Betfair cricket traders a great chance to win big with little outlay. If we can lay at sub 1.10, or even sub 1.20, we can lay larger amounts without breaking our betting banks if things go wrong.