As I said in yesterday’s post (pre start of Day 5), this was one hell of a topsy turvy affair from a cricket betting perspective. From the close of play on Monday night, up until the last rights on Tuesday afternoon, I don’t know how many times England traded down at sub 1.5, and then above Even money on Betfair.
Trading cricket on Betfair can be very dangerous when the price is jumping up and down in that manner. In betting terms, it was more like the end of a closely fought ODI or T20 match, where the match favourite switches on almost every ball.
I did stupidly get involved during the kamikazi period of trading after play had finished on Day 4. I was already in a strong position at the time (about £50 green on the draw and the same on England), but I just couldn’t resist the urge to try and make a few extra quid trading a couple of ticks here and there as the price settled down at the end of play.
It worked the first time and I managed to make a couple of quid (England were trading at around 1.92-1.96 at the time), the second time I wasn’t so lucky as the England price crashed (to around 1.60) with only my lay matched.
I wasn’t overly concerned as I knew it was supposed to start raining before play started on Day 5, so I knew/hoped the price would come back – which it did very early on Tuesday morning.
I managed to get out of that hole, so to prove to myself that I will probably never learn, I did a couple more small price movement trades before the scheduled start on Day 5, and then I eventually left it.
I initially did the bulk of my trading between the end of play on Day 3, and the start of play on Day 4. I hadn’t really got involved much before then, except for a small loss, pre toss.
At the end of Day 3, England were trading at 1.30. I thought was a ridiculous price, given the weather forecast for Day 5 was showing a possible wash out.
At that moment in time, it looked like England would have to wrap the match up on Day 4, as there looked little chance of any/much play on Day 5. So that meant they would have had to bat New Zealand out of the match, declare, and then bowl the Kiwi’s out in a day – or the weather forecast for Day 5, would have to drastically improve.
With this in mind, I thought 1.30 on England was just way to short, and I just had to lay England. I couldn’t believe this price, the market didn’t seem to be factoring the Day 5 weather into the odds at all.
Either I was going mad, or the market knew something I didn’t!
Anyway, it appeared that I wasn’t going mad as the penny finally dropped, and by the time play started on Day 4, England had drifted out to 1.65 on Betfair.
I had traded out long before this (mainly due to the erratic way the market seemed to be behaving), but I was kicking myself that I didn’t follow my instincts and stay in longer to win more. Greed has done for me many times in the past, but I think this wouldn’t have been greed, it would have been a calculated risk – that turned out to be correct. I think I was definitely too over cautious here.
What makes it all the more worse, is the silly trades I then went and got involved in between the end of play on Day 4, and the start of Day 5 – where I clearly wasn’t in any way cautious, or responsible.
Anyway it all worked out well in the end and I ended up with a nice £45.81 win. I do think that I could have traded the Test match a lot better than I did at times though.
Below is a screenshot of my how my cricket trading on Betfair finished up, it was taken just before England wrapped up their victory.