The first Test match of the English summer seen a nice profit landed as England beat New Zealand inside 4 days at Lord’s. The quick turn around in the direction of the match on the Saturday morning allowed me to turn a potentially losing position, into a £30.01 win.
I started off trading the Test match on Betfair before a ball had been bowled. I thought the draw looked too short around 48-36 hours before the scheduled start of play, so I started off by laying it (it was 2.44 when I placed my lay bet). This short price was obviously down to the bit of indifferent weather that was lingering over London and most of the UK in the build up to the Test match.
It’s amazing, the effect the weather can have on cricket betting in England!
Sure enough by the morning of the Test match, I was in a position to trade out for a couple of quid profit on all outcomes. Unfortunately, this is where things started to initially go wrong though.
I didn’t trade out. I thought that in the hour or so prior to the start of play, the draw would drift further out to around the 2.9 to 3.0 mark (I believe it would have been around 3.4- 3.5 without a weather risk). It didn’t drift though, it stayed at around 2.62-2.68.
This price still offered me a profit, but I didn’t take it and I then compounded things as I then took my eye of the ball and missed the toss. This gave me a massive problem as England won it and decided to bat. This meant that the draw immediately got backed in, as the Betfair cricket betting market felt that England would probably bat for 4 or 5 sessions and take time out of the game, and with the dodgy weather in the air, increase the likelihood of a drawn match.
Had England bowled first, I believe the draw would have drifted, as the market would have expected England to bowl New Zealand out cheaply given the overhead conditions, and move the match on at a pace.
Anyway, I know found myself in the position of either having to take a hit, or sit tight and hope/expect that the match would turn. It clearly didn’t on Day 1 as play was cut short by rain, and England had batted very cautiously and slowly prior to that.
Day 2 seen an improvement as wickets started to tumble. After the two Kiwi wickets fell early in their innings, I managed to trade out for scratch and thought I had got away with things.
On Friday night I then decided to trade the draw on Betfair. I put my lay bet up, it got matched, so and I put my back bet up, and that got matched, giving me a couple of quid profit.
I did it again, only this time I placed both my back and lay bet at the same time. This was a bit lazy of me, I didn’t expect the draw to shorten, so I should have got my lay bet matched first (as I could only see the draw drifting), and only then should I have placed my back bet.
Anyway, only my back bet got matched as the draw drifted. I went to bed assuming it would come back in, and that I would get up in the morning to see a small profit on all three outcomes, but I didn’t. When I got up in the morning, the draw had drifted even further. This left me with a nice profit on the draw, but large losses on an England or New Zealand win. And I didn’t think the game would end in a draw!!
So I then decided to place a large lay of New Zealand at 3.75. I did this in the belief that that they would either lose wickets, meaning they would drift. Or they would also grind out a score over a long period of time, taking time out of the match like England did, and their price would also drift (but not as much).
My preference was a clatter of wickets, and luckily that’s what happened. I then found myself in a position to trade out for a nice all round profit. My green on England was around £46.00, so I waited until it was time for England to bat again, and then stated to reduce some of my New Zealand red (by backing them at longer odds).
I gradually reduced my potential New Zealand loss over the Saturday afternoon, and I was pleased I did after England collapsed late on in the day.
This then left me in a position to back the draw for pennies, which I did. In the end I just decided to square the bet off so I was guaranteed around £30.00 no matter what happened.
The irony of the bet was that if I hadn’t managed to get myself into such a mess trying to trade the draw, I probably wouldn’t have been so bullish with my New Zealand lay. I probably would have played it safe, and tried to just win a couple of quid to top up my cricket betting bank.
Anyway, it ended up a good start to the English Test summer. Lets hope it is the first of plenty of cricket betting wins this season.