From the outset this Test match already looks set to be another rain influenced one. This already seems be be reflected in the betting with
Indiacurrently trading in the region of 1.86 to 1.9 on Betfair.
This looks a long price given the comprehensive nature of India’s win in the 1st Test along with the apparent massive gulf in class and home conditions, so I can only assume that this is totally down to the fact that rain is a strong probability on all 5 scheduled days of play.
The draw price has been trading around the 2.4 to 2.46 mark and New Zealand have been trading between 15 and 20 over the last few hours (at the time of writing there is about 4 hours until the scheduled start of play).
Onto my homework and there has only been 3 Test matches played here since 2005. Of these, two were drawn, and the other was a 7 wicket (high scoring) win for
In these 3 Test matches there has been 2 double centuries and 7 centuries scored, which is a fairly high ratio in my opinion.
The last Test match was in 2010 and was the 7 wicket win I referred too, it was against Australia and was played at a period when Australia were struggling and India were approaching their peak in their recent Test match history.
This suggests too me that the wicket could do enough if the rain stays away long enough.
Add to that
New Zealand’s woeful capitulation in the 1st Test and a result looks a possibility. The only problem is the rain.
It’s one of those Test matches were I belief it is better to wait and see. If
Indiabat first they could be going for 2 days, if it rains in that time then that suits India as they don’t need to force things. This would see the draw price reduce massively.
If this is to happen, then a lay of the draw pre
New Zealand innings could be the bet, as a few quick Kiwi wickets would see an opportunity to easily trade out for a profit.
New Zealandbat first the draw price could be gone after Day 1, should they collapse for the third time in a row in the series. As I said, it is one of those games where I think patience is the key.
It could be that I miss out and
Indiawalk to victory, but with the weather and the fact that it is a batsman friendly wicket I think it is better to be slightly cautious and just wait and hope to see the draw price shorten before I get involved and lay it, or back Indiato win.
Happy punting and good luck to all who get involved.