I nearly accepted the tide had turned before play started yesterday, and as England toiled on 49/3 just after lunch yesterday, I was ready to finally admit it had.
Then along came Ian Bell, and he spared me the indignity of having to come on here today and concede defeat.
Bell has put England back on the front foot, and this is reflected in the cricket betting odds as the bookies now price it up as England 8/13 – The Draw 10/3 – Australia 10/3.
Although England are on the front foot, they are still not save. England still need the tail to wag. Matt Prior isn’t having his most productive series to date, so Ian Bell will have to stay in this morning if England are to set the Aussies 300 to win.
Rain is also predicted today, which is probably what is keeping the draw price so short.
Australia will have a good go first thing this morning, seeing them off will be the first task for Bell and Bresnan. Ryan Harris will no doubt put everything into his bowling this morning and go for broke. He has nothing to lose now, the series will be dead for Australia if they don’t win this Test match. It’s pointless Harris saving himself for the 5th Test now.
From a betfair cricket trading perspective, I managed to turn my 13% (of betting bank) loss into 5% profit with an overnight trade on the draw.
I knew there was rain expected today, at the close of play yesterday I backed the draw at 5.3, and then put a lay up at 4.4 and left it overnight. When I got up this morning, it had been matched. The draw was actually available to lay at 3.9 when I checked…. much to my frustration.
I think I will adopt a watching brief now, and wait and see if the weather offers up any decent trading opportunities.