Day 2 seen another fascinating day of Ashes cricket with plenty of action, drama, and no shortage of controversy chucked into the mix…. and even a couple of world records.
With England only 15 runs ahead and already two 2nd innings wickets down (at 80/2), the Test match looks finely balanced to me, although the punters and online bookmakers are still well behind England as the hosts are odds on favourites.
A couple of early England wickets on Day 3 will firmly put the Aussies back in the driving seat. England need at least one solid partnership to get a good lead, and I don’t think they can leave Australia chasing anything under the 250-260 mark. Even on a wearing pitch, the Aussies should fancy themselves chasing around 250 in decent batting conditions, starting on Day 3.
If England can bat all day today and make Australia chase on Day 4, they will be looking at 300 plus runs to get to win, and I believe that will be a totally different proposition.
I didn’t touch my own cricket trades yesterday. I’m still standing to win on all three outcomes, with my heaviest profit on the Draw. It’s not worth laying it at the current price, so I will just sit on it and hope that it shortens at some point over the next couple of days (I still expect a result).
My prediction of backing the draw at 15.5, and laying at sub 10 for a free bet on the draw, or small all round green, didn’t quite go to plan yesterday as Australia slumped to 117/9, and the draw went out to about 28 -30. I did wonder why I had wrote that at this stage of the Test match.
As is generally the case when trading cricket on Betfair though, the draw did come back in as Ashton Agar hammered England’s suspect tail ender bowling around on his way to 98. I did see the draw touching 10 while he was on the charge. And I did say this was dependent on some sensible batting – which didn’t arrive until about 5pm last night. Ironically, the draw is back where it was at this time yesterday now.
This Test match is too close to call, and from a cricket betting perspective I am just leaving it now and sitting on my previous trades. I will only get involved again if the draw all of a sudden shortens, as I have plenty of green to lay off. Even given the unpredictable nature of this Test match so far, I think that this is probably a long shot now….. famous last words!