That was certainly a fairly explosive start to the series. It probably blew a lot of best planned Ashes bets and theories out of the window already, as I would imagine that not too many punters predicted 14 wickets would fall on the first day.
I personally expected a handful of wickets would fall, but nothing like that. I was off the view that after a dodgy first day, conditions (and the match) would settle down as the wicket and conditions might play in to the batsmen’s hands, and as a result the draw might be short enough to oppose late on Day 2 or into Day 3.
And then hopefully by Day 4, the pitch would deteriorate and would take spin, and we would get a result. Yesterday’s events have ruined that idea, as the draw is now 14/1.
After Day 1’s play, the latest Ashes betting sees the Test match priced up as England 8/15 – The Draw 14/1 – Australia 9/5 (there is a £25.00 Free Bet available using this link).
Not easy to say where the value is there to be honest. Australia are only 140 runs behind and one good partnership should see them with a first innings lead. Even so, England will surely bat better in the second innings and set Australia a testing target on a wearing pitch. I suppose that’s what is currently making England heavy odds on favourites.
In the unlikely event it becomes an option, I can’t see England declaring until the game is well out of sight. They will not take any risks there in the 1st Test.
If you are trading cricket on Betfair, I still think there is possibly some value in the draw at 15.5. If – and that is a big if on yesterday’s showing – there is some sensible batting, in good batting conditions, along with the threat of thunder storms on Saturday (assuming we get that far), the draw might see a bit of value.
I only see this as the case for a trade though, as I expect a result in this match…. and as I eluded too above, we are relying on some sensible batting – which looks a bit too much to ask.
A free bet on the draw could be obtained if you fancy the draw though, as I expect it will be possible to lay it at sub 10 some time over the next couple of days.
After some pre match draw trades, and the way I traded the match yesterday, I have my largest green on the draw. I am currently happy to leave it there and hope that the match does settle down and I can lay some of it off at better odds later in the Test match.