It’s great that at this stage of the tournament there is still six teams who are officially still in with a chance of lifting the Champions Trophy, although looking at the permutations just for Australia to qualify for the semi’s, I’d confidently say that there are only really five teams still with a realistic chance of being the last nation to lift the trophy.
And the Aussies are not even favourites to win the game outright today, never mind qualify. Sri Lanka are 8/11, Australia 11/10.
To qualify for the semi-finals, Australia will need to hammer Sri Lanka today. If batting first, Australia need to win by (approximately) more than 120 runs. If they bat second, it will obviously depend on what Sri Lanka get, but it is safe to say that the Aussies will have to knock whatever runs they are chasing off in far less than their allocated overs.
Sri Lanka just need to win, and if they do win they qualify at the expense of New Zealand. A wash out puts New Zealand through on net run rate. Or an Aussie win by a relatively smallish margin will see the Kiwi’s through.
The match is being played at the Oval. The new pitch used on Thursday by England and Sri Lanka provided plenty of runs, but today is expected to see plenty of cloud and patches of rain. So it could be a day for the bowlers (he says with little confidence).
Onto the outright winner betting, and with New Zealand waiting on today’s result to see if they are to further participate in the tournament, their cricket betting odds have drifted from 6/1 to 12/1. England meanwhile, have been cut from 5/1 to 9/4, following yesterday’s qualification for the semi-finals.
There is still a little chance Sri Lanka might top Group A, ahead of England. A reasonably large beating of Australia today would see Sri Lanka top the group. That would put England into a semi-final against India, and lead to England’s price drifting.
Australia are now out to 20/1, which looks very short to me considering their task today against Sri Lanka. I’d want 20/1 on them qualifying for the semi-finals, never mind winning the tournament.
Champions Trophy Betting
South Africa 11/4
Sri Lanka 7/1
New Zealand 12/1