South Africa go into Sunday’s 3rd test at Cape Town as the bookies favourites in what looks to be a tight game to decide the series with India. At the moment SA can be backed at prices ranging from 13/10 to 11/8, not massive value in my view.
The draw also looks a tight price ranging between 5/4 and 8/5, with India coming in at a best price of 7/2.
I feel the bookmakers are basing their odds on home advantage here. On current form it has to be said that SA are not as far ahead of India as the odds would suggest.
In the 1st test at Centurion, SA had by far the better of the conditions and played well enough to exploit them to the full. I’m not saying that they only won because of the conditions, but they did play a big part in the outcome.
Then last week in bowler friendly (some might say, doctored) conditions at Durban, SA where taught a lesson by VVS Laxman as India levelled up the series in scrappy low scoring match.
I have read that Evan Flint, the groundsman at Cape Town has apparently said that the wicket tomorrow has tennis ball bounce and should be good to bat on for days 2 and 3, before taking spin on days 4 and 5.
Taking into consideration that India probably have the better batsmen, definately have the more dangerous spinner, along with the fact that India won the contest that wasn’t influenced by the weather, I’d have to say that at the moment the 11/8 on offer for South Africa dosen’t look very appealing. In fact it looks good value to
They have a good record here, but I wouldn’t let that influence me in predicting the winner of this game. History says a SA victory, they have only lost 3 times in 21 tests since readmission (all to Australia), but recent form and the pitch conditions point towards a draw or an Indian victory.