Ashes Betting, 4th Test, Day 3 Betting

I’m on the verge of accepting momentum has turned, but not quite yet. Definitely Australia’s Test match so far, and this is reflected in the betting, as the online bookmakers now have Australia as odds on favourite.

The current cricket betting odds are Australia 4/5 – England  5/2 – The Draw 3/1.

I think the odds represent a fair reflection of where the match is. It isn’t impossible for England to get back in this Test match. If they could bowl Australia out with a 50 run lead and then bat well, they could regain parity.

Even if England could bowl Australia out cheaply this morning (the more likely of the two scenarios), they haven’t shown the form with the bat to suggest they could bat Australia out of the Test match though.

Rain is in the air later for Day 4 and 5, so that keeps the Draw in with a slight chance.

I was very happy for Chris Rogers getting his century. It was a good innings, possibly a match winning one. He threatened it at Old Trafford, and I was pleased to see him complete the job this time.

Rogers unfortunately seems to be one of these ‘unfashionable’ cricketers who will never be accepted by some, and will always have that stopgap feel about his career. Not my view, just the vibe I pick up. So it’s good to see him get some glory and positive headlines for a change.

I seen Mike Selvey tweet earlier that it was the best century of the series so far, not sure I’d totally agree that it was the outright best, but it’s certainly up there with the earlier Bell centuries as one of the best of the series.  

I’m in a bit of a hole with my Betfair cricket trading. I was laying Australia yesterday, and things were going well up until the Rogers, Watson partnership. I suppose I can’t keep expecting Watson to get himself out in the 20’s, so serves me right.

It’s not a massive all round loss, about 13% of betting bank at the moment. Although I’m not convinced Australia will win, I think I will play safe and square my loss up this morning, and just take my medicine. My main concern is that I just can’t rely on England’s batting.

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