Trading cricket on Betfair can be a volatile business, and yesterday’s on-off game between India and Pakistan seen absolute carnage on the betting exchanges. The market in question was the completed match market.
20 overs a side constitutes a match in this Champions Trophy, that is the minimum amount of overs both sides have to face to achieve an official result (unless a team gets bowled out in less than 20 overs).
The completed match market is where you can bet on whether there is an official result. ie, the recent washed out Champions Trophy game between Australia and New Zealand was a ‘no result,’ so in the completed match market, it would have been ‘No.’
Yesterday’s game between India and Pakistan had an official result (India won), so in the completed match market, it was ‘Yes.’
At various stages yesterday, the match looked certain to be a wash out, and at various stages it looked certain to be completed. At times the completed match market on Betfair looked to be all over the place, punters seem to get spooked very easily and panic seems to always ensue.
I can’t work out whether people are betting on what they think will happen, or how they think the market will behave, or just in blind panic.
To clarify that last statement in a bit more detail…. sometimes I might not know whether a match will be completed or not, so I won’t have a bet on it.
If the players are off the pitch for rain, the sight of a bit of blue sky, or covers coming off the wicket, will usually trigger a betting surge in the market, meaning I can back ‘Yes’ in the completed match market, and then trade out (for hopefully a nice profit) when the price plunges. And vice versa if the players are on the field and it starts to rain.
This is more what I would call cricket trading, as opposed to cricket betting.
Anyway, back to yesterday. And the screenshot below shows just how much money was traded on the ‘completed match market’ outcome.
At one stage yesterday when Pakistan were batting, during the first rain break, the ‘No’ outcome was trading down at odds on, in the belief that a large storm was heading to Birmingham later in the day.
Then after that threat had passed over with limited damage and while India batted early in their (reduced) innings, ‘Yes’ was trading at down below 1.10. Then while they were off for the final rain interruption ‘No’ was trading at sub 1.05 as shown above.
I then watched as the ‘No’ price went from under 1.05 to around 4/1 in a matter of about two minutes as the covers were removed. This wasn’t a massive surprise, the surprise was that the ‘No’ outcome had got backed down to as low as it did. It was absolute carnage.
This just goes to show the opportunities that are there to profit from trading cricket on Betfair. It can be costly if you get it wrong, but can be brilliant when you get it right. I think the trick is too lay at low prices, so if you do find yourself on the wrong side of the outcome your losses are minimal.
The screenshot above is testament to this, you would had been far better off laying 1.05. If you lay £100.00 at that price you lose a fiver. So what!
This is where we get the value. A bet at Even money in these events is pretty much a toss of a coin gamble (unless you trade straight out for a small profit), more akin to a Casino bet. Whereas a lay at odds like sub 1.10, is a calculated risk.
It’s not always the case, and every event should be judged on it’s own merits, but at least you shouldn’t go bankrupt laying at those prices….. like some people probably did yesterday.