Well, I did write in my last post that someone needed to take my shovel off me, and unfortunately no one did.
The worst thing about it all, is I knew what would happen – as I alluded too in my previous post- and I still let it happen. If I’m going to bet like that, then what’s the point? I may as well pack up now.
To sum up briefly, I won (approximately) 10% of my betting bank on the Test match between
West Indies and New Zealand, and lost about 20% of my betting bank on the England V South Africa test match.
I’ll start with
West Indies’ match. West Indies were 1.38 to lay towards the end of Day 1, after New Zealand had collapsed to 260 all out. With a price this short, I placed this lay with a view to backing them later in the match for an all round profit when their price drifted out again, which it did.
West Indies came out to bat, I was of the opinion that one of three things could happen. 1) The WIndies would also collapse for a similar or lower score, ensuring a drift in their price. 2) It might rain (there was a tropical storm in the area), ensuring a drift in their price. 3) They bat way past New Zealand’s score, taking time out of the game, maybe their price would shorten, but I believed that if it did, it wouldn’t shorten by much – maybe to around the 1.25-1.3 mark. Or it may even have drifted, depending on time left in match and weather forecast.
The point is that it was a low risk trade. The worst thing that might have happened was option 3.
EnglandV South Africa. I clearly took a punt on the pitch being a green top, and I clearly got that wrong (as did the Englandhierarchy). I previously stated that I felt if over 350 Overs were bowled, there would be a result. I also got that wrong.
Analysing these two bets and it is clear that I took a wildish punt on the pitch and conditions (with plenty of dodgy weather on the horizon) in the England game, with no factual knowledge of how the pitch might play as a ball had not been bowled before I placed my lay of the draw.
While in the
West Indies match, I looked at the match situation and felt that a lay of West Indies(with a view to trading later in the match) looked a value lay of small risk. This was based more on factual evidence of how batting conditions hadn’t looked great on Day 1, West Indies potential to capitulate, and I also had a fairly clear vision in my mind of what way the markets could go.
In hindsight, yes that beautiful thing, I was way too hasty with my lay in the England Test match. And worse still, there were great trading opportunities on Day 5, if I had waited.
In future I think I’m going to have to adopt an approach to staying patient, and if I miss the boat from time to time, then so be it.
More thought clearly needs to go into my trades/bets. I can’t just pile in before a ball has been bowled in hope rather than expectation. I need to sit tight and wait for an opportunity to arise, as it did in
West Indies’ match. This is the way I need to go moving forward.