To say I had itchy fingers today would be a serious understatement. I can’t begin to remember how many times I was tempted to get involved in the 3rd Test between
England and South Africa and have a bet.
But resist it I did, as I still haven’t had a bet yet.
At the start of Day 2, I had a feeling it would be a struggle for
England and was going to lay them, but I resisted. Why? Well for two reasons. 1) I’m trying to only get involved when I’m certain in my own mind of what I think will happen, and 2) For the time being, I don’t want to back against England as I want them to win.
Point 2 there obviously won’t serve me well in the long run if I am looking to make money from cricket betting.
But in all seriousness my reluctance to get involved is on the back of what I can only describe as my hastiness to get involved in the 2nd Test when I went in far too early, only to get my fingers burnt.
Accepted, there is a strong chance that by waiting here I’ll miss out on a good chance, but that’s the way I’m going to try to play it now. I could have had a nice easy win laying the draw (and backing it later in the day) on Day 5 of the 2nd Test if I had been more patient, so being patient is the way I’m going to play it from now on (or for as long as my discipline lasts).
Although I did expect
England to struggle today, I still resisted. There was an element of doubt in my mind as the game could have gone either way. And in hindsight that was correct, as it did swing one way and then the other.
I’m banking on the hope that there will come a point in this match where I can see (with more certainty than at present) what might or might not happen, and if the odds look good, only then will I get involved with a back or a lay.
My suspicion with this Test is that it won’t be a draw, this is obviously reflected in the current draw price of 3.85 (to lay). My second suspicion is that
England won’t win, which I hope to be wrong.
I do believe that at some stage there will be a big partnership or a passage of play where not a lot happens that could see the draw price shorten, especially going into Day
4, a stage of the match where punters seem to panic and take ridiculously short draw odds.
With this in mind, I am looking to lay the draw, but not until I get a price that I like the look of. My only reluctance here is the fact that a draw would suit the Saffers, but the chances are
England will have to go for bust, allowing South Africa to maybe cash in?
So patience is still the game, let’s see how long I manage to resist on Day 3.