Cricket Betting – A small back of India

The 1st Test between India and New Zealand starts in a few hours and I have decided that I am going to have a small few quid on an Indian win.
I’ve checked online, and there is a bit of weather due from Day 2 onwards in the shape of thunder storms, but given a price of  around 1.75 on India at home against a fragile looking New Zealand outfit, I feel it is a bet worth taking.
The reports I have read pre match suggesting that India are in a state of transmission may be true, but only to an extent. Yes, they are moving on from the Dravid and Laxman era, but they still have a fairly formidable looking team with Gambhir, Sehwag, Kohli, Tendulkar, Raina, Dhoni, Zaheer, etc in it.
In contrast, New Zealand have just lost a series against an improving West Indian side quite convincingly. I thought that at times they looked dogged and showed a bit of grit, but ultimately they were no where near strong enough to cope with West Indies. So why should they trouble India in India?
I’ve done a bit of online homework here. There was a recent Test match between the two sides on this ground back in November 2010 that ended in a high scoring draw. The wicket is still regarded as one that favours batting, but taking a closer look at the game back in 2010 shows that it had some mitigating circumstances.
In that match Brendon McCullun scored a double century in the New Zealand 2nd Innings, without which I believe India would have won as the only other telling (2nd Innings) contributions were a 49 and a 69. A double century is not going to happen too often.
Also 15 of the 28 wickets to fall in that game fell to the spinners, suggesting that the pitch takes a bit of spin, something that I don’t believe the Kiwi batsmen will fancy too much.
So in the cricket betting why the high India price? Maybe because of the high scoring draw last time out, maybe because of the bad weather in the area, or maybe a bit of both. I’m not sure, but I do think that India look a touch over priced.
A note of caution to myself though. Due to the bad weather and the fact that I am going away for the weekend (I may not be able to get the chance to adjust my bets if needed), I am only having a small wager. I may also trade out early on in the match if the market swings my way, just in case of the weather.
Some bad weather may also open another window of opportunity later on in the match, assuming I’m not already in a big hole (like I have been a bit too much recently).
I know I said in my last posting about being patient from now on, but if New Zealand bat first and collapse on Day 1, the price will vanish. But the fact that ‘showing patience’ is supposed to be my new mandate, is why I’m only going in small. 
Good luck to all who get involved.

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