Apologies for the late update from the England V West Indies 3rd Test last week.
In the end, it was a bit of a disaster of a trade. I started off by laying the draw on the Monday or Tuesday before it started at Even money, I thought the weather forecast might turn out to be not as bad as first thought, and that England might only need 3 days to force a result, so a lay at Evens looked like not too risky a call.
Anyway, it turned out to be wrong, but as I said, I think it was worth the risk.
Where I really mucked up (to put it politely) was on the Saturday morning. I live relatively near Edgbaston (well 20 miles), so I have a reasonable idea regarding the weather. It became quite apparent on the Friday night, that a full days play looked more than possible on the Saturday. So with this in mind, I again layed the draw, this time at around 1.15 to 1.20.
I did this with a view to the price going out to about 1.3 on the Saturday morning due to the sight of cricketers on the field – a market over reaction. I would then be in a position to get rid of most of my draw red (if not all of it).
It worked perfectly, at 10.55am there was the sight of cricketers on the field, and out the draw price went to 1.3 plus, think as high as 1.38. I had read the market perfectly. Pat on the back for me.
So what went wrong?
Well, me being me, thought “why not wait for the first over, West Indies are batting first, won’t fancy it, possible favouring bowling conditions, early wicket, etc, this draw price will drift more more”
The draw price only came in from the moment the first ball was bowled. Oh well, not too much damage done, a wicket will fall in the first 10-15 minutes, that will get the price back to around the 10.55am level again.
Wrong again! No wickets fell.
And that was that, the price was gone.
I did manage to reduce my draw red on Sunday, I traded it down a bit by laying the draw and then backing it every time England lost a wicket. But it was short lived and it only got me back a couple of quid, the damage was done on the Saturday morning. I had managed to climb out of the hole I had dug, and I didn’t act.
I ended up losing £16.50, so this takes me back below my starting bank of £100. After the 1st test it stood at £109, it is now down at £92.50. Not bank breaking, just bloody frustrating!