I managed to hit my win target (I’m aiming for between 5% and 10% a test) in the 1st Test between England and West Indies last weekend. I ended up winning 9% of my betting bank which is a decent return considering I didn’t do a lot.
I did have to risk a lot, 30% of my betting bank, to achieve this win, but in general I don’t think my money was ever really in any danger.
I’m a bit annoyed with myself though as I was a bit lazy and complacent. I put my bet on last Thursday morning and basically just left it to run, just checking in occasionally to see what the score was.
I maybe should have greened up on Saturday evening when West Indies lost their first 3 wickets for just 36 runs. At this point from a betting perspective the game was effectively over. The market expected West Indies to crumble and for England to only have to chase a few runs in their 2nd innings, if have to bat at all – and this was reflected in the odds.
I could have bought my red back for a £1 or so, but as I supposedly knew better, I left it. At that time I was confident of my bet winning, and so it proved. But the point is that if I had covered my red on the draw on Saturday evening (as most traders probably would have done), I could have layed it again when it came into about 6/1 on Sunday afternoon when Shiv had dropped anchor.
The 6/1 on the draw at this stage on Sunday was a ridiculously low price and was always going to be blown out of the water by just one wicket – and so it was. By the time I did green up on Sunday, West Indies had just been bowled out and I backed the draw at 95 for just 50p, all this meat that I had 9% profit on a result, or 30% profit had it rained all day on Monday and the game ended in a draw.
The point about trading out is that I am freeing up my money to get involved in the game again. It would also protect me from something stupid happening or a sudden change in weather etc. Basically the less time your money is tied up in the match, the less chance you have of losing it.
A quick in and out with my money is probably going to be the best long term policy. I need to discipline myself better in future, as just putting a bet on and leaving it isn’t going to make me money in the long run
My starting betting bank was £100, it now stands at £109 after 1 test.