Punters caught out at Bristol

Saturdays historic victory for Bangladesh over England at Bristol looks to have caught more than just Andrew Strauss and the England team out. It would appear that it was not just England that took it for granted that all they had to do was turn up to win yesterday (which is what I believe happened).

During the England innings I was keepeing an eye on the odds on Betfair as I got the feeling that an upset might occur during the remainder of this series, a conclusion I arrived at after a very casual looking performance from England at Trent Bridge on Thursday.

Unsurprisingley while cruising with Strauss and Kieswetter at the crease the odds on England tumbled all the way down to 1/33 and even 1/50, punters obviously thought it was all over as a contest at 49/0 and needing only 237 to win.

That was when it all went wrong, as the graph below shows £2000 was traded on England at 1.02 (1/50), this must have been just before the fall of Strauss, not a massive amount in the world of Betfair.

Further analysis shows that nearly £39,000 was traded at 1.03 (1/33), and 5 figure amounts all the way up to 1.06. Then follows a run of six figure sums from 1.07 to 1.11, before a massive £1M was gambled at 1.12.

These are extraordinary amounts of money at short odds. Not all of it will be people just backing England to win, a lot of it will be people who backed England at higher prices, laying there bets off for a profit, assuming England would win.

But as is the rule in gambling, for every winner there is a loser. And there must have been some massive loses recorded yesterday.

The thing that struck me was the amount of time it took before the market turned in favour of Bangladesh, even during the brief innings from Michael Yardy and Luke Wright, England were still heavy odds on favourite to win, probably down to the fact that Trott was still batting.

For anyone brave enough to attempt to win their money back at Edgbaston tomorrow, England are a best price of 1/7 with Totesport to win and avoid the ignominy of losing a series to Bangladesh. It also dosen’t look like the rain will intervene and leave the series tied at 1-1.

Bangladesh are 6/1 with VC Bet and Sky Bet to cause another upset and win the match and series.